TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 247.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,873
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,873 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x535b…25a9backed Over58c8,599$5,000 inLost-$5,00012555.2%69 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under43c8,084$3,458 inWon+$4,625.729,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under48c5,918$2,855 inWon+$3,063.412,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Over51c2,868$1,468 inLost-$1,46817744.1%78 W · 99 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over53c1,852$981 inLost-$981.483,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over51c1,765$900 inLost-$900.152,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over51c792.16$404 inLost-$40462347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Over58c686.73$400 inLost-$40017856.2%100 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under51c500$255 inWon+$24534645.7%158 W · 188 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under43c497$215 inWon+$281.558,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Under48c400$192 inWon+$20828751.9%149 W · 138 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Under48c310$149 inWon+$161.227247.8%130 W · 142 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under43c271.84$117 inWon+$154.951,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Over51c218.37$111 inLost-$111.3722055%121 W · 99 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d29…4083backed Under43c200$86 inWon+$11417341%71 W · 102 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under44c106.82$47 inWon+$59.8233730.3%102 W · 235 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Under44c100$44 inWon+$5614127.7%39 W · 102 L-16.4wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-26.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x551d…76a0backed Under50c100$50 inWon+$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under44c100$44 inWon+$561,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under49c81.63$40 inWon+$41.632,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9466…1f15backed Under50c40$20 inWon+$2020847.1%98 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ad…5a42backed Under52c38.46$20 inWon+$18.468452.4%44 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Over58c30$17 inLost-$17.487950.6%445 W · 434 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd2…2b28backed Under50c30$15 inWon+$154656.5%26 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under46c24.74$11 inWon+$13.3893849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5425…8b3abacked Under49c20.45$10 inWon+$10.4329156.4%164 W · 127 L+13.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.