NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe87ffa7b3838723d1e764556d7be4953edf655cce77544f6f238ce19cd31f565

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Hawks, Heat
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,471
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,577

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,471 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb7f5…c669backed Hawks	53c	4,113$2,180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,179.75	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat	46c	3,385$1,555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,829.13	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	48c	2,920$1,415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,505.17	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Heat	47c	2,300$1,081 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,219	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Hawks	55c	2,272$1,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,250	83	47%39 W · 44 L	-6.8wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Hawks	51c	1,446$738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$737.68	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Heat	48c	1,163$558 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$604.76	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Hawks	52c	1,153$599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.4	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat	48c	1,042$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$541.84	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Hawks	53c	1,000$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530	80	53.8%43 W · 37 L	-6.4wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Heat	51c	947.04$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$467.04	211	52.6%111 W · 100 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Hawks	54c	925.93$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	227	56.8%129 W · 98 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Hawks	51c	441.25$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223	462	58.2%269 W · 193 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6870…5826backed Hawks	52c	300$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	548	53.8%295 W · 253 L	+16.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Hawks	52c	300$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	403	46.2%186 W · 217 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat	46c	272.43$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.11	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Hawks	54c	222.22$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	364	50.8%185 W · 179 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Heat	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	361	43.5%157 W · 204 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Heat	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	503	46.5%234 W · 269 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks	41c	160.12$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.4	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c1…18c7backed Hawks	54c	129.63$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	140	42.9%60 W · 80 L	-9.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Hawks	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Hawks	54c	92.48$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.94	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Heat	59c	85$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.85	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Hawks	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Heat	48c	55$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.33	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Heat	47c	54.25$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.75	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Heat	47c	44.55$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.79	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59eb…fa33backed Hawks	54c	27.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	99	41.4%41 W · 58 L	-7.4wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f19…e03ebacked Heat	48c	25.37$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.19	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Heat	48c	24.44$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.71	126	54%68 W · 58 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hawks (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event