NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 126.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc632db1c8263f1a072d5f9fae01ff20a42d6387bb584c4555c3beb411a85422

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,141
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,141

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,141 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3a7a…15a4backed Under	47c	6,000$2,820 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,180	310	44.8%139 W · 171 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	53c	2,982$1,580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,580.46	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Over	53c	1,200$636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$636	175	54.9%96 W · 79 L	+15.0wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Over	53c	763.7$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.76	184	48.9%90 W · 94 L	-13.3wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over	53c	400$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x336a…1915backed Over	53c	330.19$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over	53c	97.54$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.7	102	34.3%35 W · 67 L	-12.7wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Over	53c	85.19$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.15	229	45.9%105 W · 124 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Over	53c	60$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Under	46c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	185	49.2%91 W · 94 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72ea…d4f2backed Over	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	120	52.5%63 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over	53c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	47c	21.36$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.32	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 126.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event