NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x138e0e82b5bb401f942203af342909336218e7bd38d98cf2ebcd9b3c44621220

Rebuilt 38 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,763
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $11,590

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,763 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x437c…f458backed Over	55c	1,567$860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$860.25	143	56.6%81 W · 62 L	+9.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under	39c	1,500$580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$919.99	346	45.7%158 W · 188 L	+12.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d8…b669backed Over	54c	1,350$729 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$729	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf221…2575backed Over	15c	1,334$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under	51c	1,020$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	54c	841.77$457 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.46	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	61c	667.8$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.19	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92fa…7d02backed Over	50c	584.05$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.03	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	46c	505.5$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272.97	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	45c	414.53$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.65	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	25c	333$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.25	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over	61c	321$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.81	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under	44c	179.99$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.1	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	35c	161.89$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.23	226	56.6%128 W · 98 L	+13.0wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Over	65c	154.37$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	710	44.6%317 W · 393 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a52…9ad6backed Over	65c	153.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	64.3%18 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x699c…3600backed Under	38c	150$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93	80	52.5%42 W · 38 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc938…af43backed Under	41c	149$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.33	76	48.7%37 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed Under	36c	146$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.44	49	49%24 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a0b…2a83backed Over	55c	144.9$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb94…04f4backed Under	40c	100$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	226	33.2%75 W · 151 L	+14.5wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+19%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed Under	36c	99$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.36	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	-6.0wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Under	53c	95.74$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	503	47.9%241 W · 262 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	54c	91.33$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.32	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Over	59c	84.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d7f…67d8backed Under	43c	83$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.31	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+2.4wins	+0.61per pick	39cpaid	+177.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Over	57c	82.24$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.88	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc427…ee41backed Under	38c	75$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.5	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Under	46c	69$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.26	633	53.1%336 W · 297 L	-2.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	38c	67.33$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.07	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10f7…26f0backed Under	36c	67$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.88	74	51.4%38 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Under	43c	65.99$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.62	493	58.6%289 W · 204 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Under	36c	65$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.6	95	60%57 W · 38 L	+10.7wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3620…2e6cbacked Under	46c	52.33$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.26	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+19%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x373a…668abacked Over	64c	50$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-4.0wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4130…a35bbacked Under	47c	49$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.97	81	51.9%42 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Under	36c	48$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.72	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6203…5192backed Over	64c	47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.08	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Under	38c	46$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.52	1,132	17%192 W · 940 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x581b…0290backed Under	40c	44$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.4	64	46.9%30 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…14d9backed Under	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	139	46.8%65 W · 74 L	+11.6wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x496c…941cbacked Under	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe11a…d47ebacked Over	64c	43$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.52	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under	41c	42$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.78	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…ecf3backed Under	38c	41$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.42	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6d…d6bdbacked Over	64c	40$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.2wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Under	38c	39.47$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.47	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc49c…6dcabacked Under	36c	39$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.96	79	51.9%41 W · 38 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6132…7665backed Under	38c	39$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.18	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xacac…bd06backed Over	64c	36$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.04	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-3.9wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd43a…f530backed Over	64c	36$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.04	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9874…15d7backed Over	64c	35$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-3.7wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4f9…5526backed Under	36c	34$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.76	76	51.3%39 W · 37 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbba…e95bbacked Over	64c	31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa305…73c9backed Over	64c	31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	40c	30$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…bdecbacked Over	64c	29$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.56	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-7.2wins	-0.23per pick	52cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x62f0…afe6backed Over	62c	29$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.98	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over	48c	26.17$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5b3…6785backed Under	52c	26.17$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.56	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfacf…e97abacked Over	53c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3517…9f8dbacked Over	53c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a80…cbf7backed Over	64c	24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x73c5…4997backed Over	60c	24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-4.5wins	-0.16per pick	54cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	65c	23.05$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	415	56.9%236 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca65…6746backed Over	62c	23$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.26	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00c0…4523backed Over	53c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e44…3cefbacked Over	64c	23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.72	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab2e…8b4bbacked Over	64c	23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.72	38	60.5%23 W · 15 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe105…8a2dbacked Over	64c	22$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+4.4wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x68cc…24adbacked Over	64c	21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-3.8wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfaac…1045backed Over	59c	21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96d2…dc9bbacked Over	59c	21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b1…cac1backed Over	64c	21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-3.0wins	-0.13per pick	54cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcede…276fbacked Over	60c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc86f…341dbacked Over	64c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-4.1wins	-0.14per pick	52cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x25c3…eb62backed Over	60c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12af…0730backed Over	64c	19$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.16	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e78…fcb4backed Over	62c	18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event