NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Hawks: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97e192d2a7d8ae27f96a554dacb95cd55fb501c3e2c4a5a5dc2483f414bca249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks | 30c | 1,845$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.43 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Hawks | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…f34ebacked Hawks | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…0c2fbacked Heat | 70c | 1,001$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed Heat | 70c | 740$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +381.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6110…69debacked Heat | 77c | 400$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49c…3902backed Heat | 46c | 177.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Hawks | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Hawks | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…132cbacked Heat | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Hawks | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f56…f93cbacked Hawks | 47c | 72.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Hawks | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hawks | 40c | 38.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc8…1885backed Heat | 64c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Hawks | 54c | 18.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Hawks: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. HawksHeat won
- Heat vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 126.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 127.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 129.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 245.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 246.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 247.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 248.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 249.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 250.5Under won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Heat won
- Trae Young: Rebounds Over 2.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.