TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof Gen.G, KT Rolster
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$588,505
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$680,918

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $588,505 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 321 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed KT Rolster16c41,769$6,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,714.081,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed KT Rolster1c26,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1707869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked KT Rolster19c24,461$4,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5569435.1%33 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed KT Rolster24c16,568$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.0851348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed KT Rolster22c15,809$3,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,453.6140651.7%210 W · 196 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed KT Rolster20c12,500$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84fb…675ebacked KT Rolster18c11,001$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980.182356.5%13 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+45%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8d83…d89cbacked KT Rolster18c10,689$1,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.0225453.5%136 W · 118 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Gen.G78c10,600$8,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,354.182,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked KT Rolster20c10,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.9929443.2%127 W · 167 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Gen.G80c9,534$7,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.820047%94 W · 106 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked KT Rolster24c8,331$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,970.31,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked KT Rolster23c6,389$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46030554.8%167 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked KT Rolster17c6,200$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.996636.4%24 W · 42 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed Gen.G79c5,986$4,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.4122451.8%116 W · 108 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Gen.G80c5,609$4,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.761,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3a…5ad0backed KT Rolster12c5,582$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.814639.1%18 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked KT Rolster23c5,243$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20028642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcadf…b2e3backed KT Rolster1c5,227$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603935.9%14 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked KT Rolster21c5,173$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10026549.1%130 W · 135 L+21.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked KT Rolster18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90030321.8%66 W · 237 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x068c…bce7backed KT Rolster18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd1…42d2backed KT Rolster8c4,880$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.766243.5%27 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38fb…d07cbacked KT Rolster20c4,781$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Gen.G80c4,331$3,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.281,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked KT Rolster21c4,000$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8308146.9%38 W · 43 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb132…6b5ebacked Gen.G80c3,625$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7255855.2%32 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed KT Rolster12c3,613$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.732,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Gen.G77c3,554$2,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.4237948.3%183 W · 196 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Gen.G78c3,463$2,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.4823672%170 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Gen.G75c3,040$2,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.485442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Gen.G80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed KT Rolster20c3,000$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.9855639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2627…fa13backed KT Rolster21c3,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.9811940.3%48 W · 71 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Gen.G76c2,794$2,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.561,49054.6%813 W · 677 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed KT Rolster25c2,619$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.6758259.5%346 W · 236 L+27.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked KT Rolster14c2,616$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.2429236%105 W · 187 L-0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed KT Rolster12c2,602$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.552,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked KT Rolster20c2,549$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,66059.5%987 W · 673 L+97.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Gen.G75c2,500$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6251,48250%741 W · 741 L+65.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eae…a3f0backed KT Rolster2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504010%4 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec37…85bdbacked KT Rolster17c2,420$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.49040%36 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked KT Rolster20c2,389$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47075630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Gen.G80c2,388$1,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.811,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eea…1a4cbacked KT Rolster21c2,381$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005558.2%32 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed KT Rolster22c2,362$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.1362158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed KT Rolster17c2,353$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40028847.9%138 W · 150 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked KT Rolster18c2,310$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.7917439.1%68 W · 106 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ac…a2c9backed KT Rolster23c2,242$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.654355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed KT Rolster21c2,219$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.621,09638.9%426 W · 670 L-47.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed KT Rolster9c2,172$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.873,11933.7%1,052 W · 2,067 L-151.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked KT Rolster22c2,018$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.041,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed KT Rolster22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4401,20335.7%430 W · 773 L+6.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Gen.G79c1,966$1,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.9798956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked KT Rolster18c1,920$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.062,92344.5%1,300 W · 1,623 L-91.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0563…8b03backed Gen.G77c1,893$1,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.3168443.6%298 W · 386 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b3…966bbacked KT Rolster20c1,887$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed KT Rolster18c1,875$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.56844.1%30 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5952…8a5ebacked KT Rolster19c1,875$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.256741.8%28 W · 39 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked KT Rolster18c1,875$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.587844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked KT Rolster7c1,855$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.167115.4%103 W · 568 L-28.9wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-57.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Gen.G76c1,831$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.162,15253.3%1,147 W · 1,005 L+58.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ee1…3e22backed KT Rolster23c1,800$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4145129.4%15 W · 36 L-6.5wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-27.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked KT Rolster22c1,600$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35111753%62 W · 55 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7a…aaaebacked KT Rolster8c1,591$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12026151.7%135 W · 126 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x609d…3fa9backed Gen.G80c1,559$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.7523156.3%130 W · 101 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked KT Rolster23c1,556$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.3329945.8%137 W · 162 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Gen.G73c1,500$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40538963%245 W · 144 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed KT Rolster23c1,500$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3403,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd501…b86ebacked Gen.G76c1,500$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36012045%54 W · 66 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed KT Rolster23c1,497$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.0747533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed KT Rolster22c1,477$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.191,04450.4%526 W · 518 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7986…baa5backed KT Rolster24c1,465$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.5921347.9%102 W · 111 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed KT Rolster3c1,400$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.51,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked KT Rolster18c1,304$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.4863344.5%282 W · 351 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked KT Rolster21c1,255$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.5595041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0753…0caabacked KT Rolster1c1,250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111040%0 W · 104 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3224…2dd5backed KT Rolster2c1,243$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.94119.5%8 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Gen.G76c1,162$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.8860855.8%339 W · 269 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Gen.G78c1,140$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.611,95230.6%597 W · 1,355 L-166.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ad0…6187backed Gen.G80c1,121$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.2716443.3%71 W · 93 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked KT Rolster19c1,100$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20920946.4%97 W · 112 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa75b…772cbacked KT Rolster22c1,098$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.6112641.3%52 W · 74 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Gen.G73c1,096$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.8922953.7%123 W · 106 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked KT Rolster2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed KT Rolster14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14062942.4%267 W · 362 L-3.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb13a…707bbacked Gen.G80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2003348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x418d…0595backed Gen.G79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick65cpaid+19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbeef…92b7backed Gen.G76c999.99$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24015541.3%64 W · 91 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked KT Rolster24c999.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb35f…cf4cbacked Gen.G76c926.5$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.7943346.7%202 W · 231 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed Gen.G77c909.09$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.0977246.2%357 W · 415 L+18.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed KT Rolster12c900$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1128334.9%29 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked KT Rolster25c863.34$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.8413137.4%49 W · 82 L-11.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4dd9…5d16backed KT Rolster25c860.99$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.052540%10 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked KT Rolster18c842.85$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15019653.1%104 W · 92 L+15.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0021…0891backed Gen.G77c823.36$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.47366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc186…e96ebacked Gen.G73c821.92$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.9215552.3%81 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Gen.G80c818.3$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.661,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked KT Rolster32c818.16$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.511,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.