TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Paper Rexof Paper Rex, Leviatán Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$264,256
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$290,858

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,256 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed Leviatán Esports35c23,622$8,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,263.3624145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Leviatán Esports1c19,122$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.223432.4%11 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d6e…5cfdbacked Paper Rex65c13,096$8,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,588.861540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Leviatán Esports31c10,535$3,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,251.9868458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Paper Rex65c9,239$6,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,233.6254851.1%280 W · 268 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Leviatán Esports35c6,897$2,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4145556.4%31 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b8c…9fffbacked Leviatán Esports64c6,744$4,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,289.161747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3dc…eaa8backed Paper Rex66c6,600$4,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,271.39650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Paper Rex69c6,357$4,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,001.9810238.2%39 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Paper Rex65c6,154$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,153.851662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Paper Rex55c5,265$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,382.3252455.2%289 W · 235 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Leviatán Esports35c5,000$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.9732047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Leviatán Esports31c4,710$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.2665559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Leviatán Esports36c4,090$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.0253159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea47…5783backed Paper Rex62c3,000$1,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Leviatán Esports50c2,827$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.4778562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed Leviatán Esports42c2,614$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.676259.7%37 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8e6…d471backed Paper Rex66c2,527$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.933966.7%26 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5480…b38cbacked Leviatán Esports35c2,280$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.13560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed Leviatán Esports46c2,087$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.366373%46 W · 17 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Leviatán Esports32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6403857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Leviatán Esports47c1,758$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.5453455.2%295 W · 239 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8d…8922backed Leviatán Esports25c1,714$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Leviatán Esports50c1,651$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.3813050.8%66 W · 64 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x910e…29bcbacked Leviatán Esports33c1,520$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Leviatán Esports46c1,480$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.6756557.7%326 W · 239 L+35.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc96…d916backed Leviatán Esports35c1,391$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.521926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffa…7710backed Leviatán Esports35c1,154$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.543633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Leviatán Esports35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3505655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Paper Rex50c1,000$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.616639.2%65 W · 101 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Leviatán Esports39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39063955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Paper Rex57c999.15$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.891,25349.5%620 W · 633 L-3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Leviatán Esports37c989.4$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.0826450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Paper Rex55c929.91$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.981,61245.1%727 W · 885 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Leviatán Esports32c916.16$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.1753742.1%226 W · 311 L-15.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17d3…586bbacked Leviatán Esports59c849.95$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.476250%31 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Paper Rex66c754.55$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.4893649.3%461 W · 475 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Leviatán Esports51c726.01$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.515048%24 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Paper Rex55c697.46$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.321,31243.8%575 W · 737 L-44.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x63ad…790cbacked Leviatán Esports34c668$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.121936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Leviatán Esports36c660.38$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.3520855.8%116 W · 92 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Paper Rex76c636$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.096048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Leviatán Esports50c614.34$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.7894361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c48…eba9backed Paper Rex66c609.98$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.397045.7%32 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Leviatán Esports44c606.92$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.141,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked Leviatán Esports50c590.73$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.374544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Paper Rex76c545.66$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.969151.6%47 W · 44 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Paper Rex65c521.55$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.5417349.7%86 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Leviatán Esports36c517.94$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.9614534.5%50 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Leviatán Esports35c506.24$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.186250%31 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x02e9…d23fbacked Paper Rex66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x026b…8804backed Paper Rex60c494.31$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.6615358.8%90 W · 63 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Leviatán Esports34c435.2$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9728740.8%117 W · 170 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Paper Rex56c412.25$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.6818444.6%82 W · 102 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Leviatán Esports34c397.68$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.861,49546.6%696 W · 799 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Leviatán Esports34c367.77$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.8631046.5%144 W · 166 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Leviatán Esports25c363.75$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4789344.3%396 W · 497 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Leviatán Esports41c353.69$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6778344.1%345 W · 438 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Paper Rex76c332.14$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8126650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa04c…55d3backed Leviatán Esports34c314.28$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.86633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Leviatán Esports41c310.11$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.7570543.5%307 W · 398 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd008…84fabacked Paper Rex64c310.1$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+149.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Paper Rex66c303.09$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0562156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Leviatán Esports35c297.3$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5479650%398 W · 398 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b1c…8273backed Paper Rex68c294.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.121450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Leviatán Esports38c291.67$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0852050%260 W · 260 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Leviatán Esports39c289.87$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8542140.4%170 W · 251 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4c2…a16ebacked Paper Rex65c285.01$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.01771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Leviatán Esports34c284.67$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6855348.3%267 W · 286 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Paper Rex58c263.25$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.727947.7%133 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Leviatán Esports12c252.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.460423%139 W · 465 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Leviatán Esports40c250.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1940…0ea1backed Leviatán Esports66c250$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1654143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe767…9107backed Paper Rex47c240.21$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.216755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd06…f0c1backed Paper Rex44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.273046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Paper Rex66c220$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.813455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23ae…60a6backed Paper Rex70c212.84$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.321136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10a5…afe7backed Paper Rex77c211.12$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.121090%9 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick65cpaid+41.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3909…a12ebacked Leviatán Esports37c209.75$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb92…b221backed Leviatán Esports23c205.69$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.88450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Leviatán Esports33c202$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6593248.1%448 W · 484 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed Leviatán Esports46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925837.9%22 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed Paper Rex65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7043459.2%257 W · 177 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd831…6fccbacked Leviatán Esports51c197.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+85.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4841…1767backed Leviatán Esports27c195.61$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.381618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeed…f629backed Leviatán Esports51c194.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a5…bcfabacked Leviatán Esports24c192.14$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.11825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcab9…eb2dbacked Paper Rex70c191.84$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.21450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcead…afeabacked Leviatán Esports26c191.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f9b…bc2fbacked Paper Rex65c188.75$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.062766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b8d…4b6fbacked Leviatán Esports61c182.47$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.77265.3%47 W · 25 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54a1…f88bbacked Leviatán Esports11c179.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208936%32 W · 57 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Paper Rex57c174.85$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0475142.7%321 W · 430 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x199b…354ebacked Leviatán Esports17c171.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.015639.3%22 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Leviatán Esports49c164$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1699945.9%459 W · 540 L-27.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x472c…eaeabacked Leviatán Esports49c162.37$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.561428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50ab…70a2backed Leviatán Esports36c162.02$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599540%38 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Paper Rex38c158$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.3314850%74 W · 74 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0919…2074backed Paper Rex65c151.26$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.942560%15 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb7b…bfeebacked Leviatán Esports49c150.71$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.52231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.