TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Leviatán Esportsof Paper Rex, Leviatán Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$170,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$191,514

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,042 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed Leviatán Esports41c13,321$5,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,859.645429.6%16 W · 38 L-9.2wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-42%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Paper Rex59c9,880$5,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,829.2812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.39per pick51cpaid-84%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7b8c…9fffbacked Paper Rex60c9,141$5,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,455.471747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d6e…5cfdbacked Leviatán Esports40c7,363$2,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,418.241540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Paper Rex59c6,572$3,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,877.54542.2%19 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Leviatán Esports41c6,000$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,539.9726738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff7…a0dfbacked Leviatán Esports41c6,000$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,539.94450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Paper Rex59c4,834$2,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8719340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Leviatán Esports41c4,435$1,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,596.6533153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Paper Rex52c4,109$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,146.2668458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Leviatán Esports43c3,569$1,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,018.426650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe32a…1f66backed Paper Rex18c3,505$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.51963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Paper Rex61c3,289$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed Leviatán Esports60c2,958$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.886259.7%37 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea47…5783backed Paper Rex59c2,940$1,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,734.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3dc…eaa8backed Paper Rex59c2,896$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,708.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Paper Rex51c2,873$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.5853159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9a4…8427backed Paper Rex60c2,760$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6562240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Leviatán Esports58c2,693$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.3656357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Leviatán Esports58c2,637$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.8753355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed Paper Rex60c2,593$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.482744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Paper Rex60c2,092$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.796847.1%32 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02e9…d23fbacked Paper Rex59c2,034$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Paper Rex55c2,000$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.245655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Leviatán Esports40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20032047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Leviatán Esports46c1,769$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.8994361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed Leviatán Esports57c1,708$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.586373%46 W · 17 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3eca…86e3backed Leviatán Esports41c1,600$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid+22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac9c…50d8backed Paper Rex1c1,484$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8410217.6%18 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa83f…b857backed Leviatán Esports41c1,458$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.992347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Leviatán Esports57c1,372$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.671,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Leviatán Esports64c1,255$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.981,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5480…b38cbacked Leviatán Esports42c1,014$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.95560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Leviatán Esports32c1,000$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68116639.2%65 W · 101 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Leviatán Esports62c985.77$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.91,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Paper Rex38c900$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34213743.8%60 W · 77 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Leviatán Esports41c889.99$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.13834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Leviatán Esports41c888$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.9255152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65ea…476cbacked Paper Rex58c863.69$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed Leviatán Esports41c860.98$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.986637.9%25 W · 41 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Paper Rex50c842.58$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.565559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe767…9107backed Leviatán Esports37c812.48$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.936755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Paper Rex22c800$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.2736138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Leviatán Esports40c800$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48053442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Leviatán Esports43c748.84$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.845556.4%31 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed Paper Rex56c744.5$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.92850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Leviatán Esports45c734.16$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.470043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Leviatán Esports41c731.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.711050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Paper Rex57c706.19$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.596048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked Leviatán Esports41c700$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41313741.6%57 W · 80 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Leviatán Esports46c678.3$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.9942140.4%170 W · 251 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Paper Rex51c650$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.518143.6%79 W · 102 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Paper Rex61c598.14$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.0893049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb39…13bebacked Paper Rex50c592.25$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.78425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Leviatán Esports45c557$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.7814750.3%74 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35ae…b929backed Leviatán Esports34c551.2$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.514443.1%62 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Paper Rex58c541.73$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.642369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Leviatán Esports47c525.91$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.8977744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x910e…29bcbacked Leviatán Esports43c522.23$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Leviatán Esports38c514.07$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.91,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Paper Rex57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2852729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked Paper Rex56c499.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.994751.1%24 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08e7…4f63backed Leviatán Esports47c495.81$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.64156.1%23 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+39.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa487…9439backed Paper Rex59c494.81$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.944736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xadb8…63bfbacked Paper Rex23c483.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Leviatán Esports42c476.21$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.949942.4%42 W · 57 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Paper Rex10c472.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9322018.2%40 W · 180 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Paper Rex58c472$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.7621055.2%116 W · 94 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x788c…b217backed Paper Rex56c467.87$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.39966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Leviatán Esports44c463.19$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.3931046.5%144 W · 166 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x499f…b72bbacked Leviatán Esports35c441.08$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.293348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Leviatán Esports43c402.11$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.1315038%57 W · 93 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Leviatán Esports44c369.3$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.0220755.6%115 W · 92 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed Paper Rex54c367.71$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.563151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Paper Rex65c331$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.5922455.4%124 W · 100 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafc5…2b1dbacked Paper Rex23c317.95$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.111435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd008…84fabacked Leviatán Esports31c317.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.66475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+149.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Leviatán Esports42c307.15$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.660022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee35…0015backed Paper Rex65c301.98$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.8630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Paper Rex65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19528541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x026b…8804backed Leviatán Esports32c290.08$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.6515358.8%90 W · 63 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Leviatán Esports43c283.11$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.4137545.6%171 W · 204 L-1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Paper Rex53c282.34$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15034954.7%191 W · 158 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Leviatán Esports40c275.67$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.091,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed Paper Rex21c273$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.334746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Leviatán Esports43c267.07$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.341,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Leviatán Esports44c264.92$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.7463955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9e7…56d8backed Leviatán Esports42c260.92$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.331181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+64.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Paper Rex51c258.97$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8210238.2%39 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Paper Rex9c250$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.53650%18 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f65…a0adbacked Paper Rex58c250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1453138.7%12 W · 19 L-5.1wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Leviatán Esports42c250$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1451,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57e1…c97fbacked Paper Rex58c250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1451838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Paper Rex33c249.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.52347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x472c…eaeabacked Paper Rex47c246.81$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Leviatán Esports42c235$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13727947.7%133 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb515…cd6bbacked Leviatán Esports43c233$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.819148.4%44 W · 47 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffde…cd13backed Paper Rex22c228.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddbd…bcb5backed Leviatán Esports33c217.65$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.656426.6%17 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3909…a12ebacked Leviatán Esports37c214.96$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.961233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.