Lol · resolved market
LoL: Conviction vs Contingent Esports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa009de37a41d60bbaf6ca75903e1708fdba8b811e60ac8fe39fd6535746e925c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Convictionof Conviction, Contingent Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Contingent Esports | 44c | 5,040$2,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240.84 | 857 | 42.7%366 W · 491 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…1e8abacked Conviction | 56c | 2,629$1,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.66 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…ab7bbacked Conviction | 56c | 1,723$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.81 | 835 | 60.8%508 W · 327 L | +45.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Contingent Esports | 22c | 1,617$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.24 | 1,389 | 37.7%524 W · 865 L | -45.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…d4d1backed Contingent Esports | 22c | 1,327$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.2 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…7d7bbacked Conviction | 75c | 1,280$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.91 | 665 | 59.5%396 W · 269 L | +72.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Conviction | 70c | 944.99$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.57 | 1,940 | 48.1%934 W · 1,006 L | +22.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb46…ed08backed Conviction | 80c | 900$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…8553backed Contingent Esports | 43c | 856.91$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.17 | 700 | 57.3%401 W · 299 L | +36.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Conviction | 56c | 689.75$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.47 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…16abbacked Contingent Esports | 18c | 643$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.74 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Contingent Esports | 17c | 594.75$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.06 | 637 | 42.7%272 W · 365 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Contingent Esports | 5c | 553.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1,113 | 39%434 W · 679 L | -44.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515d…0340backed Conviction | 58c | 542$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.64 | 346 | 58.1%201 W · 145 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdccd…f41abacked Contingent Esports | 34c | 506.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 178 | 39.3%70 W · 108 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Conviction | 62c | 487.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.92 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…a2cbbacked Contingent Esports | 8c | 486.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 245 | 54.3%133 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Conviction | 61c | 442.42$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.71 | 448 | 51.8%232 W · 216 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a76…29dcbacked Conviction | 55c | 412.77$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.77 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Conviction | 61c | 411.12$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.04 | 1,047 | 50.3%527 W · 520 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Contingent Esports | 48c | 395.45$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.47 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Contingent Esports | 12c | 381.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 1,922 | 42.2%811 W · 1,111 L | -45.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Contingent Esports | 39c | 349.13$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.16 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa69…3594backed Contingent Esports | 27c | 334.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Contingent Esports | 38c | 307$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 1,638 | 46.7%765 W · 873 L | -26.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Contingent Esports | 38c | 301.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 2,202 | 33.3%733 W · 1,469 L | -72.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Contingent Esports | 42c | 283$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.49 | 944 | 44.4%419 W · 525 L | -31.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Contingent Esports | 42c | 275$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.96 | 1,057 | 46.1%487 W · 570 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Conviction | 68c | 256.64$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.82 | 2,938 | 44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L | -92.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Contingent Esports | 35c | 241.04$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 1,671 | 57.9%968 W · 703 L | +70.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Contingent Esports | 42c | 241$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 858 | 49.5%425 W · 433 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Contingent Esports | 46c | 239.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.66 | 1,318 | 47.3%624 W · 694 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a01…bc5ebacked Conviction | 66c | 199$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 350 | 58.6%205 W · 145 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…2b4fbacked Contingent Esports | 42c | 167.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 505 | 50.7%256 W · 249 L | +34.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Conviction | 70c | 166.55$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 1,899 | 37.1%705 W · 1,194 L | -113.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d21…b3cfbacked Conviction | 74c | 160.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 356 | 59%210 W · 146 L | +21.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…6f23backed Conviction | 78c | 147.77$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 405 | 49.1%199 W · 206 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…9f80backed Conviction | 79c | 141.54$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Contingent Esports | 23c | 135.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 1,971 | 30.5%601 W · 1,370 L | -170.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Contingent Esports | 38c | 134.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 624 | 51.4%321 W · 303 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Conviction | 55c | 122.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 1,826 | 39.9%728 W · 1,098 L | -61.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Conviction | 73c | 121.84$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Conviction | 61c | 112.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 840 | 41%344 W · 496 L | -38.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Contingent Esports | 43c | 110.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 1,464 | 43.4%636 W · 828 L | -32.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Contingent Esports | 39c | 107.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 447 | 45.2%202 W · 245 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b1…2687backed Contingent Esports | 34c | 98.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 308 | 43.2%133 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Conviction | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 419 | 45.1%189 W · 230 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Contingent Esports | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…6c84backed Contingent Esports | 21c | 78.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 344 | 38.7%133 W · 211 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Conviction | 79c | 76.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 1,543 | 54.8%845 W · 698 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…d77cbacked Conviction | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 67cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Contingent Esports | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 777 | 41.7%324 W · 453 L | -27.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…bf1ebacked Conviction | 54c | 74.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 692 | 47%325 W · 367 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b95…b23ebacked Conviction | 53c | 74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 1,024 | 45%461 W · 563 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4509…58aebacked Contingent Esports | 31c | 60.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1,055 | 39.6%418 W · 637 L | -74.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Conviction | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 197 | 59.4%117 W · 80 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…deedbacked Conviction | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 402 | 45.8%184 W · 218 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df3…9ac3backed Conviction | 64c | 44.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 420 | 55%231 W · 189 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb8…5a88backed Conviction | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 342 | 55.6%190 W · 152 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d47…0592backed Contingent Esports | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…8cc4backed Contingent Esports | 42c | 26.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 411 | 51.1%210 W · 201 L | +19.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Contingent Esports | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Conviction | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 358 | 48.9%175 W · 183 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Conviction | 73c | 21.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 1,357 | 31.2%423 W · 934 L | -129.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Conviction | 79c | 13.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 696 | 44.4%309 W · 387 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Conviction vs Contingent Esports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Contingent Esports (+1.5)Conviction won
- LoL: Conviction vs Contingent Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group StageConviction won
- LoL: Conviction vs Contingent Esports - Game 2 WinnerConviction won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.