Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Contingent Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3092bdaa20996c4b8b92e116aead93f91cc6e5eb4f90a9451bab728d798b15d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Convictionof Conviction, Contingent Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b96…4389backed Contingent Esports | 61c | 1,503$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924 | 660 | 59.8%395 W · 265 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…0f24backed Conviction | 37c | 750$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Contingent Esports | 62c | 539.57$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.74 | 624 | 51.4%321 W · 303 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Conviction | 40c | 376.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.51 | 421 | 43.9%185 W · 236 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Conviction | 40c | 337.9$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.74 | 354 | 43.2%153 W · 201 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Conviction | 37c | 337.39$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.01 | 1,047 | 50.3%527 W · 520 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657a…d1f4backed Conviction | 39c | 333.32$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.32 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Contingent Esports | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 348 | 49.1%171 W · 177 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Contingent Esports | 62c | 227.64$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.14 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b95…b23ebacked Conviction | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 1,024 | 45%461 W · 563 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Conviction | 40c | 147.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.76 | 639 | 44.6%285 W · 354 L | -18.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed Conviction | 40c | 127.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 282 | 35.1%99 W · 183 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Contingent Esports | 64c | 79.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Contingent Esports | 61c | 69.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 447 | 45.2%202 W · 245 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked Conviction | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 117 | 35%41 W · 76 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Conviction | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Contingent Esports (+1.5)this page
- LoL: Conviction vs Contingent Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group StageConviction won
- LoL: Conviction vs Contingent Esports - Game 1 WinnerConviction won
- LoL: Conviction vs Contingent Esports - Game 2 WinnerConviction won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.