TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: NRG Esports vs Cupid Esports - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
NRG Esportsof NRG Esports, Cupid Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$82,507
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,824

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,507 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66b1…6b9dbacked Cupid Esports18c10,158$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.874112.2%5 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed NRG Esports69c4,871$3,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530.8657957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked NRG Esports52c3,915$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.1528642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Cupid Esports40c3,273$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.771,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4ac…9722backed Cupid Esports49c3,061$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5009944.4%44 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed Cupid Esports48c3,030$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.5730843.2%133 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed NRG Esports51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.991,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Cupid Esports77c2,596$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.0362158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed Cupid Esports35c2,123$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.7428948.1%139 W · 150 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Cupid Esports35c1,854$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.312,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Cupid Esports45c1,600$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7201,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed NRG Esports67c1,563$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.81,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Cupid Esports76c1,475$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.0658559.7%349 W · 236 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Cupid Esports76c1,318$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed NRG Esports55c1,271$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.51,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked NRG Esports60c825$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.6814136.9%52 W · 89 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked Cupid Esports33c632.35$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21017839.3%70 W · 108 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed NRG Esports58c630$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.0435442.1%149 W · 205 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Cupid Esports61c558.76$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.311,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Cupid Esports49c523.78$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.3819259.9%115 W · 77 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed NRG Esports59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20566059.8%395 W · 265 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb46…ed08backed NRG Esports27c499.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.9932337.2%120 W · 203 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a65…c721backed NRG Esports71c492.96$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.96862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked NRG Esports52c481.75$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.232,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Cupid Esports47c434.66$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.761,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked Cupid Esports47c428.95$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.6135659%210 W · 146 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb35f…cf4cbacked NRG Esports50c399.92$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.4544846.2%207 W · 241 L+1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Cupid Esports33c373.44$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.012,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6455…2604backed NRG Esports67c360$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.818061.7%111 W · 69 L+15.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed NRG Esports71c346.48$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.4880150.7%406 W · 395 L+48.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x406d…5298backed NRG Esports70c313.94$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.7114363.6%91 W · 52 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b16…9f80backed NRG Esports67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999262%57 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked NRG Esports40c293.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.417738.4%68 W · 109 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5703…1048backed NRG Esports58c284.48$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4822544%99 W · 126 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Cupid Esports61c273.49$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.5346058%267 W · 193 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Cupid Esports44c272.42$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.862,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed NRG Esports80c267.61$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5263742.7%272 W · 365 L-2.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked NRG Esports55c263.27$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4738157.5%219 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked NRG Esports76c255.7$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6685849.5%425 W · 433 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd7…8553backed NRG Esports56c220.67$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.170057.3%401 W · 299 L+36.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed NRG Esports56c214.19$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.241,38545.1%625 W · 760 L-12.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Cupid Esports30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a7e…9dc6backed NRG Esports51c185.47$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8846248.9%226 W · 236 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked NRG Esports69c185.4$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.481,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked NRG Esports62c184.41$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.621,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x907f…27dabacked NRG Esports58c171.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.243557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4509…58aebacked NRG Esports58c171.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721,05539.6%418 W · 637 L-74.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked NRG Esports68c166.26$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.521,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df3…9ac3backed Cupid Esports40c164.79$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5542055%231 W · 189 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6983…88c3backed NRG Esports49c163.32$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.294546.7%21 W · 24 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Cupid Esports48c163$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9154934.8%191 W · 358 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Cupid Esports18c142.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.761,60617.5%281 W · 1,325 L-245.0wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked NRG Esports60c141.13$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.731,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xdd1e…4754backed Cupid Esports44c136.54$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6018151.9%94 W · 87 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5819…2b4fbacked NRG Esports55c118.42$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2950550.7%256 W · 249 L+34.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Cupid Esports41c117.13$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1194444.4%419 W · 525 L-31.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36ba…7c09backed Cupid Esports36c111.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017462.6%109 W · 65 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cupid Esports46c111$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.491,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Cupid Esports19c108.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.11,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Cupid Esports48c108.1$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.861,05746.1%487 W · 570 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa955…7487backed Cupid Esports32c106.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked Cupid Esports21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9535159.5%209 W · 142 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf08e…1256backed Cupid Esports35c99.56$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.47755.8%43 W · 34 L+11.5wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+26.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed NRG Esports50c98.21$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7138555.1%212 W · 173 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc690…ec5bbacked NRG Esports52c96.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9241453.4%221 W · 193 L+1.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Cupid Esports33c95$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.31,46443.4%636 W · 828 L-32.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked NRG Esports52c93$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6435642.4%151 W · 205 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Cupid Esports14c91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.781,92435.9%691 W · 1,233 L-97.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Cupid Esports42c90.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.931,06347.2%502 W · 561 L-2.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked NRG Esports49c90$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.742,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5151…645cbacked NRG Esports20c88$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1145444.3%201 W · 253 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb1c…2679backed Cupid Esports78c85.67$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.244461.7%274 W · 170 L+27.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9473…cba4backed NRG Esports62c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.553545.2%242 W · 293 L+0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked NRG Esports48c75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3919835.4%70 W · 128 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3320…c9e7backed NRG Esports27c74.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.071850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+60.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x431a…50d7backed Cupid Esports49c71.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3533453.9%180 W · 154 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Cupid Esports44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3029637.8%112 W · 184 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed NRG Esports76c67.97$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0944851.8%232 W · 216 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ce…3f1dbacked Cupid Esports60c63.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9218357.4%105 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b21…1f5cbacked NRG Esports80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.57451.4%38 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Cupid Esports36c61.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.061,31847.3%624 W · 694 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked NRG Esports37c60.77$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.441,35731.2%423 W · 934 L-129.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked Cupid Esports32c59.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1984041%344 W · 496 L-38.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a9d…6c84backed Cupid Esports33c56.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6634438.7%133 W · 211 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe598…e597backed NRG Esports54c55.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.287451.4%38 W · 36 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed NRG Esports56c54.8$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.111,31049.2%644 W · 666 L-23.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed NRG Esports53c54.32$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5360855.8%339 W · 269 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94e8…f707backed Cupid Esports52c52.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275650%28 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Cupid Esports68c50.93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7123458.5%137 W · 97 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Cupid Esports23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3277741.7%324 W · 453 L-27.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf006…bf1ebacked NRG Esports59c47.46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4669247%325 W · 367 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fbc…deedbacked NRG Esports66c45.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4840245.8%184 W · 218 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Cupid Esports30c45.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3763426%165 W · 469 L-90.0wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-54%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed NRG Esports40c45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2730731.6%97 W · 210 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f0c…a691backed Cupid Esports31c44.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9562150.6%314 W · 307 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Cupid Esports52c41.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.335639.3%140 W · 216 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Cupid Esports73c41.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3023146.8%108 W · 123 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Cupid Esports44c40.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9987844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda54…63d4backed NRG Esports62c40.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3213537%50 W · 85 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked NRG Esports50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.172,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.