TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: NRG Esports vs Cupid Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
NRG Esportsof NRG Esports, Cupid Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,909
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$92,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,909 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66b1…6b9dbacked Cupid Esports23c13,093$3,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,076.514112.2%5 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed NRG Esports78c4,091$3,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.0258259.5%346 W · 236 L+27.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked Cupid Esports52c3,770$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,97528642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Cupid Esports7c3,127$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.671,93048.2%930 W · 1,000 L+24.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e5b…2b2dbacked NRG Esports70c2,860$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.6626155.9%146 W · 115 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed NRG Esports77c2,761$2,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.8962158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed NRG Esports51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.9757957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cupid Esports20c2,254$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.131,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Cupid Esports14c2,109$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.291,09638.9%426 W · 670 L-47.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed NRG Esports50c2,011$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.530843.2%133 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed NRG Esports62c1,743$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.982,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Cupid Esports27c1,608$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.282,49047.3%1,179 W · 1,311 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Cupid Esports47c1,523$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.541,79251.1%916 W · 876 L+50.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Cupid Esports6c1,507$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.232,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed Cupid Esports50c1,424$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.228847.9%138 W · 150 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked NRG Esports78c1,386$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.911,66059.5%987 W · 673 L+97.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed NRG Esports51c1,173$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.771,30138.6%502 W · 799 L-65.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked NRG Esports75c1,142$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.4465359.4%388 W · 265 L+70.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Cupid Esports49c1,027$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50313354.1%72 W · 61 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Cupid Esports58c1,000$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.9983460.8%507 W · 327 L+44.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb46…ed08backed Cupid Esports12c900$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10832337.2%120 W · 203 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed NRG Esports68c700.61$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.8444851.8%232 W · 216 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked Cupid Esports15c654.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Cupid Esports49c652.24$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32028035%98 W · 182 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0565…d01abacked Cupid Esports49c638.51$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3151450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed NRG Esports72c621$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.8827353.1%145 W · 128 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked NRG Esports66c562.58$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.421,95230.6%597 W · 1,355 L-166.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a4c…55babacked NRG Esports53c553$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.9110859.3%64 W · 44 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b16…9f80backed NRG Esports61c550$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.189262%57 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed NRG Esports64c533.48$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.281,04946%483 W · 566 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Cupid Esports31c524.95$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.5752441%215 W · 309 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e24…4fabbacked Cupid Esports54c508.87$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.7933457.8%193 W · 141 L+18.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed Cupid Esports38c501.42$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18979650.6%403 W · 393 L+47.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked NRG Esports70c500$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.671,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed NRG Esports52c457$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.8755844.6%249 W · 309 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked Cupid Esports8c450.18$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.695822.4%13 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Cupid Esports7c414.43$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0127644.9%124 W · 152 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked NRG Esports67c407.38$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8793844.3%416 W · 522 L-31.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Cupid Esports47c399.99$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18894237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb35f…cf4cbacked NRG Esports49c381.17$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.6543346.7%202 W · 231 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked NRG Esports70c381$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.822,67235.7%954 W · 1,718 L-153.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xecab…f7ecbacked Cupid Esports3c359.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5517712.4%22 W · 155 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5703…1048backed NRG Esports53c338.56$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.5622544%99 W · 126 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Cupid Esports16c309.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.821,60517.5%281 W · 1,324 L-244.2wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked NRG Esports53c301.89$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.8917839.3%70 W · 108 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Cupid Esports10c300.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.91,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked NRG Esports52c299.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14486649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf71e…917bbacked NRG Esports71c292.86$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8626765.9%176 W · 91 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Cupid Esports49c276.04$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.2614136.9%52 W · 89 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Cupid Esports44c272.42$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.862,15253.3%1,147 W · 1,005 L+58.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed Cupid Esports41c244.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10062439.7%248 W · 376 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e1a…a659backed Cupid Esports35c220.5$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7818051.7%93 W · 87 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Cupid Esports15c219.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.991,44413.2%191 W · 1,253 L-110.0wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Cupid Esports23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5022742.7%97 W · 130 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed NRG Esports56c214.19$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.241,38145.1%623 W · 758 L-12.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe224…4907backed NRG Esports72c211.76$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.296671.2%47 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a1d…3fa1backed NRG Esports70c209.14$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.749355.9%52 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked NRG Esports73c208$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.412,30339.4%907 W · 1,396 L-82.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Cupid Esports9c207.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6382836.4%301 W · 527 L-41.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Cupid Esports25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16f1…e1d1backed NRG Esports69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6238851.3%199 W · 189 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4509…58aebacked Cupid Esports29c180.76$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.981,04239.6%413 W · 629 L-73.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed NRG Esports45c180$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995060%30 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Cupid Esports8c176.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3362826%163 W · 465 L-89.3wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-54.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked NRG Esports57c171.91$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.21,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed NRG Esports70c159.87$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4246846.8%219 W · 249 L-23.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed NRG Esports53c152.83$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8322953.7%123 W · 106 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Cupid Esports10c146.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5662942.4%267 W · 362 L-3.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Cupid Esports32c144.32$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.821,91742.3%810 W · 1,107 L-44.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd1d…6f23backed Cupid Esports49c142.86$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7040048.5%194 W · 206 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked NRG Esports53c140$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4935159.5%209 W · 142 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56fa…30cebacked Cupid Esports24c134.82$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9315038.7%58 W · 92 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e9…b2e0backed NRG Esports77c133.26$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0918863.3%119 W · 69 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Cupid Esports17c125$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.821,92335.9%690 W · 1,233 L-98.0wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6ce…3f1dbacked Cupid Esports48c106.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1418357.4%105 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed NRG Esports75c95.55$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.241,16866.1%772 W · 396 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9803…0242backed NRG Esports53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3413352.6%70 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb1c…2679backed NRG Esports79c90.05$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3444161.5%271 W · 170 L+25.9wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Cupid Esports35c79.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9884949.4%419 W · 430 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda54…63d4backed NRG Esports53c76.79$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1913537%50 W · 85 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1493…41acbacked NRG Esports47c67.74$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.998248.8%40 W · 42 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Cupid Esports43c65$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2546841.7%195 W · 273 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8058…4cc3backed Cupid Esports50c62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3114052.9%74 W · 66 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked NRG Esports52c60.47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0336460.2%219 W · 145 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94e8…f707backed NRG Esports61c60.46$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.585549.1%27 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe598…e597backed Cupid Esports49c60.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.867252.8%38 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked NRG Esports68c56.69$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.341,34931.1%420 W · 929 L-128.5wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked NRG Esports75c55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5269644.4%309 W · 387 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed NRG Esports56c54.8$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.111,30049.2%639 W · 661 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Cupid Esports49c54.78$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.631,30147.2%614 W · 687 L-32.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36ba…7c09backed NRG Esports74c54.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0517462.6%109 W · 65 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked NRG Esports53c53.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2219759.4%117 W · 80 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf08e…1256backed Cupid Esports37c52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.277755.8%43 W · 34 L+11.5wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+26.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf006…bf1ebacked Cupid Esports49c51.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2569247%325 W · 367 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked NRG Esports61c51$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.041,45943.3%632 W · 827 L-33.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df3…9ac3backed Cupid Esports55c51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0540955.5%227 W · 182 L+23.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9d7…a1ffbacked Cupid Esports34c51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4621350.7%108 W · 105 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3adf…9c7bbacked NRG Esports52c50.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.478565.9%56 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Cupid Esports31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.577641.6%323 W · 453 L-27.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd2…2b8fbacked Cupid Esports48c41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6842451.2%217 W · 207 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.