TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Maryville University vs CCG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Maryville Universityof Maryville University, CCG Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,107
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$117,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,107 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Maryville University52c5,750$2,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,777.811,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Maryville University57c4,545$2,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,976.1537245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked CCG Esports43c4,501$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.511,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed CCG Esports49c3,879$1,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896.7819748.2%95 W · 102 L+15.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed CCG Esports44c3,830$1,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,680.62,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa759…1119backed Maryville University57c3,642$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.7511367.3%76 W · 37 L+14.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked CCG Esports40c3,081$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.1166559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Maryville University59c3,038$1,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.82,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed Maryville University57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29011860.2%71 W · 47 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+44.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked CCG Esports52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.9983560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked CCG Esports42c2,445$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.051,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked Maryville University56c2,028$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.172548%12 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed CCG Esports44c2,000$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.582722.2%6 W · 21 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed CCG Esports23c1,921$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.891,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Maryville University56c1,834$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.991,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Maryville University56c1,759$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.0846552.7%245 W · 220 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Maryville University56c1,729$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.3335435.3%125 W · 229 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed CCG Esports2c1,605$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.331,60617.5%281 W · 1,325 L-245.0wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed CCG Esports36c1,511$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.1830843.2%133 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed CCG Esports43c1,500$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.9966059.8%395 W · 265 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked CCG Esports42c1,461$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.6685742.7%366 W · 491 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…aa7dbacked Maryville University57c1,186$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.7711750.4%59 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed CCG Esports45c1,112$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015857.6%91 W · 67 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Maryville University56c1,104$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.71,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed CCG Esports48c1,080$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.9560354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Maryville University57c908.45$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.591,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed Maryville University57c900$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38737039.5%146 W · 224 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb9…1d15backed Maryville University57c872.44$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed CCG Esports44c859.1$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.671,05746.1%487 W · 570 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Maryville University47c822.24$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.491,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked CCG Esports40c819.1$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.642,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd7…8553backed CCG Esports47c812.66$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.9570057.3%401 W · 299 L+36.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed CCG Esports43c799.99$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3471,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6e9…caedbacked CCG Esports43c768.4$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.419658.3%56 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked CCG Esports43c768.4$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.4114552.4%76 W · 69 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Maryville University55c703.87$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.711,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed CCG Esports44c699.87$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.552,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked CCG Esports46c666$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.181,31847.3%624 W · 694 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Maryville University80c625.58$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.571,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked CCG Esports39c567.05$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.3817839.3%70 W · 108 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked CCG Esports46c543.48$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25024554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Maryville University56c535.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.7142143.9%185 W · 236 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Maryville University66c535.41$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.6997854.4%532 W · 446 L+48.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f38…a0edbacked Maryville University59c529.98$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.496852.9%36 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked CCG Esports20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10037633.5%126 W · 250 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a9d…6c84backed CCG Esports45c497.49$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.734438.7%133 W · 211 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Maryville University57c441.24$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.5834448.3%166 W · 178 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed CCG Esports45c439.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.180150.7%406 W · 395 L+48.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked Maryville University56c428.07$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.321,02445%461 W · 563 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked CCG Esports19c421.05$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4385849.5%425 W · 433 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Maryville University55c398.44$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.7944451.8%230 W · 214 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x539e…5968backed CCG Esports43c379.07$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1632934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+41.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked CCG Esports40c364$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.619244.3%85 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32c6…b25bbacked CCG Esports18c357.03$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653531.4%11 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed CCG Esports42c355.17$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.792,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d1c…f271backed Maryville University56c350$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.611984.2%16 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+25.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Maryville University58c349.2$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7362451.4%321 W · 303 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d91…16abbacked CCG Esports45c334.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.3513456.7%76 W · 58 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Maryville University58c325.2$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.531,46443.4%636 W · 828 L-32.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked CCG Esports23c304.33$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.891,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xfbd2…2b8fbacked CCG Esports46c281$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2642851.2%219 W · 209 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Maryville University56c255.37$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3610634.9%37 W · 69 L-14.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-31.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6777…1a8dbacked CCG Esports52c251.81$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4422751.5%117 W · 110 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed CCG Esports46c250.39$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.181,38545.1%625 W · 760 L-12.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed CCG Esports44c238.05$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.611,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed CCG Esports43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10052441%215 W · 309 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ec2…82babacked CCG Esports14c230$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-68.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4281…1a5abacked CCG Esports43c212.47$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.367243.1%31 W · 41 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked CCG Esports43c212.12$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0989050.6%450 W · 440 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3fe…3f90backed CCG Esports49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007044.3%31 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…38c8backed CCG Esports53c202.36$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.253976.9%30 W · 9 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked CCG Esports47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9498956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Maryville University53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9457957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed Maryville University54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0422746.3%105 W · 122 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed CCG Esports33c199.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.389632.3%31 W · 65 L-11.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-47.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Maryville University56c199.59$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0739951.1%204 W · 195 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf60…5267backed CCG Esports21c199.01$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5515571%110 W · 45 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Maryville University50c195.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.521,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked CCG Esports53c192$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.461,06347.2%502 W · 561 L-2.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a5…d45abacked Maryville University54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.199852%51 W · 47 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked CCG Esports44c181.82$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8012447.6%59 W · 65 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5848…56a1backed CCG Esports44c179.55$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbff…b7a7backed CCG Esports44c177.27$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783560%21 W · 14 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+23.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Maryville University61c175.93$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.151,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd85e…5ba6backed Maryville University57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.442433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-41.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Maryville University55c172.88$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.061,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5e…0381backed Maryville University47c169.75$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7548951.5%252 W · 237 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a76…29dcbacked CCG Esports43c169.6$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.813764.2%88 W · 49 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Maryville University71c164.38$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.691,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fb8…5a88backed CCG Esports46c164.13$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8634255.6%190 W · 152 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd1d…6f23backed CCG Esports61c163.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040549.1%199 W · 206 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9473…cba4backed CCG Esports38c160.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2853545.2%242 W · 293 L+0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5819…2b4fbacked CCG Esports47c157.79$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1650550.7%256 W · 249 L+34.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Maryville University58c146.87$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.952,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25ea…2675backed CCG Esports21c142.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3033456%187 W · 147 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Maryville University57c140$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.217136.3%62 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked CCG Esports42c131.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4319758.9%116 W · 81 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x422d…7e39backed CCG Esports40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509745.4%44 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed CCG Esports44c124.78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5534960.7%212 W · 137 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37d9…30debacked CCG Esports40c121.34$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.