Commodities · resolved market
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c34ce3b0d7a422032459d3d047219a82a788a522a043666fd7cf60136602a96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 17,503$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 3c | 9,083$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 1c | 6,626$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked No | 0c | 6,077$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 2c | 4,739$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 14c | 2,614$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.97 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 1,867$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.34 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 7c | 1,791$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.88 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 36c | 1,651$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.45 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…e8e0backed Yes | 77c | 1,580$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,418$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.13 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 4c | 1,129$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 48c | 1,079$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.44 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked Yes | 49c | 1,000$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 993.33$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.57 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 7c | 934.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 46c | 871.08$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.07 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…b0febacked Yes | 47c | 864.8$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 5c | 757.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed Yes | 58c | 734.57$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.66 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 55c | 666.87$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.63 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cc…feb0backed Yes | 75c | 646.45$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…00dfbacked No | 2c | 526.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 38c | 505.43$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.05 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 27c | 499.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked No | 73c | 499.99$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.5wins | -0.58per pick | 74cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 46c | 494.25$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 456.17$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.03 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 7c | 444.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 27c | 436$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 61c | 433.78$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.68 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 8c | 334$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 328$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 28c | 317.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 30c | 315$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 311.7$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.03 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 51c | 279.6$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.51 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 74c | 266.57$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 23c | 258.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 225$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 10c | 220$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 24c | 216.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 21c | 210$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 73c | 203.36$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 63c | 199.87$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…e999backed Yes | 51c | 197.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 43c | 197.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x031c…b73dbacked No | 45c | 196.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 41c | 195$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 69c | 181.09$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 75c | 155.3$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x726a…200cbacked Yes | 68c | 146.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…dc59backed Yes | 40c | 124.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked No | 55c | 120.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b010backed Yes | 45c | 117.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 115$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 15c | 104$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked Yes | 53c | 94.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 73c | 92.76$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 56c | 88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 18c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1241…081bbacked Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 40c | 79.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 69.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…e84dbacked No | 42c | 68.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 53c | 61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed No | 55c | 59.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 55c | 59.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 48c | 55.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 63c | 51.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x257e…5680backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…fc3ebacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 45c | 44.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf759…0221backed Yes | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…790fbacked Yes | 24c | 41.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eab…d4bfbacked No | 37c | 40.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55b0…4408backed Yes | 59c | 39.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 46c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 35.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…106ebacked No | 40c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed No | 50c | 34.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6350…ae47backed No | 39c | 33.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…eaf6backed No | 40c | 33.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 53c | 32.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7f…8373backed No | 40c | 30.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…8c5bbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Yes | 36c | 29.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ad0cbacked Yes | 59c | 29.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc04a…7c00backed No | 40c | 29.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9481…209abacked Yes | 72c | 27.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?this page
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?No won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.