Commodities · resolved market
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23591cceaef52994b5cc694e439eb68e205ed068b2d3902b94b223c312cce8e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45fb…f1f6backed Yes | 2c | 22,313$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 2c | 2,704$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 12c | 1,360$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.98 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,360$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.84 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726a…200cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,222$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.3 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…79e0backed Yes | 2c | 921.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 2c | 705.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 15c | 664.84$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 14c | 630.16$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c6…0054backed Yes | 10c | 529.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 523.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 26c | 391.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…e999backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 15c | 284.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 6c | 282.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 15c | 269.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c70…f74dbacked Yes | 7c | 252.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…01e9backed Yes | 14c | 241.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 7cpaid | +245.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes | 9c | 223.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 9c | 214$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 17c | 200.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 16c | 191.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 178.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 160.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 184 | 40.2%74 W · 110 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 148.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 15c | 146.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 129.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76bf…b5abbacked Yes | 10c | 119.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…dc59backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4b…f637backed Yes | 12c | 91.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1241…081bbacked Yes | 14c | 87.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes | 35c | 86.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked Yes | 23c | 82.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 79c | 51.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 52c | 50.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…a8d5backed No | 77c | 38.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1fff…3d2ebacked Yes | 43c | 34.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…cf43backed Yes | 45c | 33.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…9794backed No | 76c | 22.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…c598backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 13.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?this page
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?No won
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Yes won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.