Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ec6bec8f9c25c49995d5d6e810681995fc86efce904a035fa1f613508d10b44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes | 21c | 7,675$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.86 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 24c | 4,091$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 15c | 3,534$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 19c | 3,521$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.33 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…dedfbacked Yes | 34c | 2,499$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 2,228$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.33 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fb50backed Yes | 16c | 1,726$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.45 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 17c | 1,719$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.05 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…664dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,467$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,413$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.97 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fb…4bfdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,251$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 1,248$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.35 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 22c | 1,195$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.77 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 70c | 1,065$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.15 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 12c | 990.78$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.16 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 775.2$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.28 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 15c | 753.6$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…907dbacked No | 76c | 701.86$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 6c | 689.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 673.19$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.91 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fe…d5f6backed Yes | 21c | 586.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 18c | 554.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 17c | 550.03$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 533$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 77c | 514.52$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 72c | 491.72$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 77c | 484.07$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726a…200cbacked No | 79c | 459.17$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.44 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…86d9backed Yes | 13c | 442.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 79c | 441.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1241…081bbacked Yes | 22c | 433.83$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…b0febacked Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf410…3ca1backed Yes | 24c | 387.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 12c | 360.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b010backed Yes | 19c | 328.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 16c | 270$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 247.66$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…c558backed Yes | 24c | 246.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 10c | 222.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b19…6759backed Yes | 20c | 207.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…2663backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Yes | 25c | 175$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 21c | 166$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 29c | 154.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d29…71c2backed Yes | 23c | 151$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…5ecbbacked Yes | 16c | 149.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…3e0ebacked Yes | 13c | 149.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 18c | 136$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 24c | 131.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 126.89$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 120.45$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede0…9f81backed Yes | 18c | 112.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 22c | 108$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…9d6ebacked Yes | 25c | 101.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…f683backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…4da6backed Yes | 26c | 96.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…5378backed Yes | 31c | 96.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…56edbacked Yes | 17c | 88.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…80c5backed No | 77c | 88.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked Yes | 13c | 83.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 26c | 77.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 16c | 74.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 22c | 73.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 72.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…a3acbacked No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 59.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1737…c5f6backed Yes | 21c | 57.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc16…492bbacked Yes | 22c | 57.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…7fe5backed Yes | 18c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…a8d5backed Yes | 20c | 50.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…cdcfbacked Yes | 29c | 43.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf759…0221backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…67b5backed Yes | 26c | 39.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 75c | 38.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 77c | 33.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 76c | 33.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…e966backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34e…bb55backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 27.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed No | 70c | 21.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x196d…9688backed No | 80c | 18.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…b1febacked No | 80c | 18.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad0…1153backed No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b73…4045backed No | 79c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017a…caffbacked No | 78c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027b…def1backed No | 77c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…505dbacked No | 78c | 13.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…f125backed No | 78c | 12.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?this page
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?No won
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Yes won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.