World Politics · resolved market
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cdb74c86b303f7a2f15d4d822b6421310cfffb9efa3ab7346b13c63a057ba4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $316,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $316,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c65…b9eebacked Yes | 0c | 70,610$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.43 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 0c | 41,209$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 28,763$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 17,412$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked Yes | 0c | 11,048$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677d…5a0dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,991$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 4c | 5,333$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.96 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 4c | 4,385$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.7 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 1c | 4,199$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…a1f9backed Yes | 2c | 4,113$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,058$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.05 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cc…feb0backed Yes | 1c | 4,025$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…7e33backed Yes | 0c | 3,531$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…cf55backed Yes | 0c | 2,321$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0720…cc21backed Yes | 1c | 1,900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…da46backed Yes | 1c | 1,873$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 4c | 1,216$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b6…e069backed Yes | 1c | 898$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…e066backed Yes | 2c | 742.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…06ddbacked Yes | 3c | 704.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 1c | 668.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…648dbacked Yes | 6c | 664.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 8c | 556.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…3fe8backed Yes | 7c | 454.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c2…d7a3backed Yes | 3c | 397.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 393.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…e1ddbacked Yes | 12c | 343.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 4c | 306.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…161cbacked Yes | 5c | 285.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59c…e578backed Yes | 5c | 277.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c22…a280backed Yes | 9c | 239.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 6c | 208.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?this page
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?Yes won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+?No won
- Will another candidate win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.