World Politics · resolved market
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x673014b56298da65997bb9310fce2a14117ffb0301a766cebdb87d20b7c6a748
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d21…6dfebacked Yes | 0c | 17,562$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…b9eebacked Yes | 0c | 14,712$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fe…4474backed Yes | 0c | 13,489$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -56%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28fc…e85cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc3…5f60backed Yes | 0c | 8,590$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf605…9e39backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759e…78fbbacked Yes | 0c | 3,903$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad2…395abacked Yes | 2c | 2,880$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 1c | 1,968$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2e…c38dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,144$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…ed51backed Yes | 1c | 987.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc340…ff0abacked Yes | 2c | 696.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d00…2eefbacked Yes | 3c | 645.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…9dfebacked Yes | 4c | 470.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed Yes | 10c | 330$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…e1ddbacked Yes | 5c | 302.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?this page
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?Yes won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?No won
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?No won
- Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+?No won
- Will another candidate win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.