Music · resolved market
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in the US in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3822760f24b05033f129f9704f29038775ec49639d6a10e240138d25a824c689
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d8a…9b58backed No | 4c | 1,580$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed No | 8c | 1,088$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 595.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 10c | 435.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed No | 21c | 395.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 317.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c56…6316backed No | 8c | 250.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 236.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 78c | 226.25$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 73c | 176.54$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…6a46backed No | 8c | 137.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…0693backed No | 30c | 133.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…c9bfbacked No | 26c | 96.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb9…753fbacked No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…cd3bbacked No | 32c | 55.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 36c | 32.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 79c | 27.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 46c | 25.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 70c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in the US in May?this page
- Will Alex Warren have a #1 hit in the US in May?No won
- Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in the US in May?No won
- Will Don Toliver have a #1 hit in the US in May?No won
- Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May?No won
- Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in May?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in the US in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.