Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62ef8e78d55e53a0587e551b3883659c0f0f390367c15502e5db2290bbe9f845
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 23c | 3,670$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.18 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…66fbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,277$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +279.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 21c | 1,234$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.61 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed No | 30c | 1,212$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.23 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…0ed8backed Yes | 12c | 1,101$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 17cpaid | +211.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked Yes | 14c | 820.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.92 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c5…913cbacked Yes | 39c | 516.31$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 19c | 415.06$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.18 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80e5…7134backed Yes | 74c | 365.34$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 31c | 345.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.31 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 305.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb247…7a27backed Yes | 9c | 263.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,066.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 62c | 250.11$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 17c | 249.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.97 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 228.05$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 17c | 170.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.38 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 167.91$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.1 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes | 14c | 166$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +320.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7796…5e92backed Yes | 40c | 161.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 71c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 12c | 129.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 10c | 126$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…e259backed No | 37c | 122.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed Yes | 31c | 107.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…8a2abacked No | 59c | 107.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 11c | 106.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 28c | 101.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…56e3backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 76.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked No | 27c | 58.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c57…278ebacked Yes | 20c | 57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 77c | 54.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 72c | 40.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…aa13backed Yes | 69c | 40.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…9b51backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed No | 62c | 38.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…e4a1backed Yes | 77c | 32.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 52c | 29.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 63c | 25.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…3b9dbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…1765backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5979…fc4fbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1a…de1abacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…6ce2backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b03…5778backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…23a0backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…4ab0backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 70c | 18.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.