Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d2c9b8bbc81ef294b72a82db21b85dafaab1dbf9f7c1e3aebe531ad7bfc8e2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed Yes | 28c | 4,326$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,228$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…93e6backed Yes | 2c | 4,140$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cc…f2a3backed No | 78c | 3,644$2,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed Yes | 2c | 3,332$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ba…40d9backed No | 63c | 3,041$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b6…4eecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,933$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 1,926$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.3 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…0ed8backed Yes | 8c | 1,903$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 17cpaid | +211.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,749$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 70c | 1,680$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.05 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…0332backed Yes | 1c | 1,593$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…523cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,513$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,199$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc76d…d3a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,123$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac89…88adbacked Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…d701backed Yes | 5c | 1,098$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 4c | 1,080$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…de48backed Yes | 7c | 1,054$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 954.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 945.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 7c | 908.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910e…1096backed Yes | 3c | 904.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 642.7$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5001…bc10backed Yes | 50c | 624$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 583.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980e…9ce0backed Yes | 59c | 510$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ce…271dbacked Yes | 15c | 507.34$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b54…353cbacked Yes | 16c | 497.84$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 15c | 476.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 36c | 472.57$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 2c | 460.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…5a2bbacked Yes | 44c | 440.97$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e0…58d7backed Yes | 40c | 440.6$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 420.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 7c | 419.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 73c | 349.99$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb656…42e6backed Yes | 19c | 328.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…6f32backed Yes | 29c | 308.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 6c | 281.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…d3a5backed Yes | 4c | 245$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0881…356abacked Yes | 10c | 239.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 14c | 200.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…1cbebacked Yes | 52c | 181.52$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…27bbbacked Yes | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 28c | 173.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabe2…6b5bbacked Yes | 53c | 161.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x043e…1e20backed Yes | 68c | 147.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe355…a1f9backed Yes | 15c | 133.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 68c | 133.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…d911backed Yes | 12c | 130.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 11c | 129$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7928…f432backed Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 117.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked No | 63c | 108.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…e259backed Yes | 60c | 103.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 102.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…fd80backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…6e0dbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffa9…84e4backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…98e0backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…35a2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71b…a060backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f57…f387backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585c…4db6backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…9222backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…d705backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ad…199ebacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cc…ec40backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc6…7bc7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecb…d052backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f55…38aebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4e7bbacked No | 68c | 98.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82db…ef2ebacked Yes | 13c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde1…76d5backed Yes | 12c | 89.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…e4a1backed Yes | 26c | 88.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea3…c850backed Yes | 50c | 87.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 83.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7047…8352backed Yes | 18c | 81.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…9930backed No | 75c | 80.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 19c | 78.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 73.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 21c | 72.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…56e3backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c57…278ebacked Yes | 22c | 67.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked No | 52c | 64.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 64.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 61c | 61.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 47c | 61.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 18c | 56.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 58c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…dc4fbacked Yes | 39c | 53.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.