Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e3e487328ad7d400320139498d5aa6ea44e8bdbe5c6dd45b84872d7ac4f885a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 78c | 1,020$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.69 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…8a2abacked No | 17c | 838.25$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 655$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…e259backed No | 4c | 569$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…444cbacked Yes | 74c | 474.23$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.16 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 3c | 435$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.06 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 280$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.3 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 5c | 253.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 5c | 227.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a90…03b5backed No | 22c | 153$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 33c | 151.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 20c | 148.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…0ed8backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 17cpaid | +211.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 17c | 98.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 43c | 91.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cf…6dcabacked No | 32c | 62.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec7…367fbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 26cpaid | +292.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 57c | 49.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 66c | 27.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.