Middle East · resolved market
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x200d8c839b9a469ae51a309f16725f44aabedd276d6c2a9b1e2e5be3c8a00a4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 19c | 1,195$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.88 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x27b7…0704backed No | 80c | 804.09$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.19 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 664$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 46c | 649.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 17c | 571.73$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.26 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 20c | 545.33$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…6e7bbacked No | 58c | 494.63$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…4e5bbacked Yes | 68c | 443.48$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.48 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…6818backed Yes | 22c | 434.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +347.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130e…cc45backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502e…5202backed No | 50c | 329.85$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…3306backed Yes | 8c | 324.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 29c | 249.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.59 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed Yes | 62c | 225.86$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b06…3489backed No | 71c | 211.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…96febacked Yes | 10c | 204.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked Yes | 65c | 184.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 64c | 170.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…081bbacked No | 32c | 157.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed No | 27c | 130$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 123.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 21c | 115.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 32c | 111$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…4a3cbacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c9…2294backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 47c | 96.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 68c | 88.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 29c | 87.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 13c | 87.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed Yes | 75c | 79.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…c783backed No | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…f47abacked No | 35c | 78.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 70c | 74.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 65c | 66.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…131cbacked Yes | 25c | 51.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…5864backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…26fbbacked Yes | 65c | 45.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…5770backed No | 74c | 40.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…621ebacked No | 69c | 34.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 53c | 34.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635e…1f63backed Yes | 49c | 28.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 25.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xed73…4465backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…1127backed Yes | 53c | 24.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.