Middle East · resolved market
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb14ed88bae8764ad19560fae8a3183822f61e360c2fe0352072092a780522984
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 7c | 6,203$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.13 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,223$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 22c | 2,520$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.06 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12bb…f88abacked Yes | 21c | 2,500$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bf…3d9abacked Yes | 19c | 2,500$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,661$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 22c | 1,098$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.79 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 984.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 11c | 827.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 773.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 13c | 699.93$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +863.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88da…15c6backed Yes | 22c | 696.39$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…fa73backed Yes | 4c | 670.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 22c | 664.01$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.41 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 641.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 401.17$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 400.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 360.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 16c | 329.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 3c | 306.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 74c | 305.92$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…02a0backed Yes | 21c | 305.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…9090backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b51…e49ebacked Yes | 4c | 272.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e47…57ffbacked Yes | 26c | 250.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…4c4cbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed Yes | 24c | 219$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 19c | 214.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 20c | 197.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Yes | 21c | 195.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…df76backed Yes | 18c | 185.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 78c | 155.13$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…e399backed Yes | 15c | 106.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…dbf9backed No | 77c | 102.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 21c | 100.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed70…04cebacked Yes | 43c | 95.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 20c | 92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked No | 67c | 88.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 84.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…4c49backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf283…da05backed Yes | 17c | 79.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…d463backed Yes | 16c | 76.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…f6ffbacked Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 39c | 64.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 36c | 59.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +25.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Yes | 21c | 56.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9b…8e49backed No | 77c | 51.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…d842backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f53…b445backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1eb…4c93backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 80c | 39.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 76c | 35.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…336dbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 75c | 34.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 75c | 29.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…b9f6backed No | 78c | 25.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed73…4465backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…5556backed No | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f78…1141backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…c15fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +109%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5e…ff63backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31?this page
- Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 22?No won
- Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 23?No won
- Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 24?No won
- Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 27?No won
- Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 30?No won
- Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30?No won
- Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.