Middle East · resolved market
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74d86a1ba77f11924f25716fd929f3773dcf127278bee43f884fb389698447f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,625$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,564$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 9c | 1,041$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…51dbbacked No | 69c | 999.99$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Yes | 5c | 963.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 18c | 689.74$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.93 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 10c | 659.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 9c | 619$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +11.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 519.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 7c | 461.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 27c | 420$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 9cpaid | +307.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 21c | 327.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f83…643fbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e0…50d0backed Yes | 33c | 264.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3b…9240backed Yes | 8c | 245.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb003…97e1backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a83…7e38backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +293.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e3…6df9backed Yes | 6c | 198$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 6c | 188.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 60c | 175$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1e…08f0backed Yes | 9c | 169.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +301.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 13c | 166.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 67c | 142.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 141$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed Yes | 22c | 130.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…c4c5backed Yes | 30c | 113.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 15c | 106.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad02…8d80backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13cd…64d7backed Yes | 30c | 98.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -41%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 15c | 73.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 35c | 59.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…bd92backed Yes | 54c | 59.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 42c | 40.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0411…3ecdbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 26.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 73c | 17.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4?this page
- Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 22?No won
- Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 23?No won
- Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 24?No won
- Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 27?No won
- Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 30?No won
- Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30?No won
- Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.