AI · resolved market
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05d4246d5278fd06e9d2bd37d9f43f8a5f1be5278d72a7bab075622ba37169b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,996$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,435$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 18c | 1,329$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.62 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 4c | 872.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 6c | 564.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…4203backed Yes | 25c | 477.59$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 456.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 13c | 435.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 415.15$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 11c | 368.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 344.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 3c | 330.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…6cb6backed No | 76c | 301.53$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 265.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 79c | 246.92$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…d320backed Yes | 8c | 229.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +152%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 16c | 219.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 17c | 158.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4c…7c33backed Yes | 35c | 143.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed No | 78c | 142.76$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 17c | 128.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52c…23f1backed Yes | 19c | 115.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 18c | 114.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 16c | 107.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd915…31f8backed Yes | 23c | 84.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 77.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 78c | 75.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…25d2backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…7d80backed No | 72c | 69.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 16c | 68.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed Yes | 30c | 67.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…4c28backed Yes | 23c | 64.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…3b87backed No | 78c | 47.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 78c | 42.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xac23…46ebbacked No | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…9a97backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c59…8363backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd1…bfb5backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9100…1bfbbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3380…f598backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 79c | 14.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?this page
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.