AI · resolved market
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c5921c2dc445e07236fabaab789e8b5b219cc73199e82160b17b9539d758d4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37a1…b0c8backed No | 24c | 2,636$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 71c | 1,511$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.87 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 75c | 636.69$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.84 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 78c | 624.24$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.73 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x119c…2d4abacked No | 18c | 549.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.98 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…4883backed No | 24c | 490.53$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 353$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 4c | 352.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 75c | 342.87$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked No | 26c | 161.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b8…051bbacked Yes | 70c | 156.07$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…1c07backed No | 25c | 142.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 74c | 139.01$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 74c | 137.34$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x278e…0797backed Yes | 78c | 132.94$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 61c | 118.64$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked No | 17c | 112$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c04…c81abacked No | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 97.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 72c | 91.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 21c | 88.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 88.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 74c | 87.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 26c | 82.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 70c | 78.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…d4f6backed No | 26c | 77.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 77c | 71.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56e…f316backed No | 28c | 68.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 24c | 65.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 25c | 59.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…2a03backed No | 23c | 56.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 73c | 48.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 75c | 39.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed Yes | 74c | 21.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 71c | 18.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?this page
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.