AI · resolved market
Services Down Parlay
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0be22773d8967f992f22a33d408f96bc5f44c53d429042e547e8bcd2538bc9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,506$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed Yes | 17c | 787$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c8…46cbbacked No | 73c | 442.05$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…1471backed Yes | 38c | 430.9$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 9c | 255.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 232.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes | 17c | 209$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…a5adbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 27c | 196.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 73c | 190$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 17c | 184.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 19c | 160.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…b536backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…457ebacked No | 77c | 121.46$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 41c | 121.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 31c | 106.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 76c | 78.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 41c | 73.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 28c | 71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…1fb0backed Yes | 36c | 68.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 60c | 56.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d83…bf7ebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…5d7bbacked No | 79c | 46.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a33…39ddbacked Yes | 57c | 37.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 73c | 13.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.