Middle East · resolved market
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4343d5924735287a425b5ff79c01c76ac59aab570427898f9b963a13ec68a28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 71c | 3,538$2,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,512.07 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ad…5efebacked Yes | 69c | 2,177$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 73c | 1,967$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.09 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 34c | 1,424$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.85 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed No | 55c | 1,394$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.95 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb0…2ccebacked No | 57c | 1,348$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 71c | 1,328$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.23 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 52c | 1,070$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.1 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 27c | 1,067$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.09 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 27c | 936$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed Yes | 27c | 859$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.93 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 62c | 760.14$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.08 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 62c | 717.41$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.3 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 57c | 700$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.47 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed No | 73c | 681$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 73c | 644$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.88 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…e8c4backed No | 38c | 639$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed Yes | 62c | 639$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 70c | 624.5$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.03 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 600$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.5 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 40c | 561.16$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.74 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 24c | 556.84$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.63 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 59c | 547.79$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.22 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 30c | 536.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.36 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 37c | 535.76$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.03 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 45c | 526.86$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.92 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked No | 29c | 521.39$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 33c | 507.38$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.58 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed No | 25c | 500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 52c | 492.42$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.62 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48f…4ae5backed No | 32c | 400$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +255.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 393.17$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.91 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 300$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3e…39b2backed No | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 45c | 280.32$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.15 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea3…466bbacked No | 49c | 268.49$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 56c | 259.72$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.49 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked Yes | 27c | 258$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 73c | 257$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 24c | 250$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.75 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x619c…b656backed Yes | 45c | 248.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 38c | 245.59$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 7c | 243.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed No | 39c | 236.66$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.66 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 22c | 228.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.08 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 77c | 225$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 37c | 217.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.93 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed No | 49c | 215.96$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb953…5393backed No | 50c | 200.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +238.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0502…54c6backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 32c | 198.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.86 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 65c | 196.08$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.49 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 61c | 181.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked Yes | 27c | 172$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed No | 37c | 166.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.18 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 40c | 165.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 33c | 163.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 62c | 162.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 34c | 160.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.29 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 39c | 157.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 56c | 152.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.52 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…c097backed No | 36c | 150.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.16 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 17c | 145.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed No | 35c | 142.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…55d9backed Yes | 27c | 142$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 33c | 139.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 30c | 139.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.59 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 55c | 138.29$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 31c | 137$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.53 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +79%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…4745backed No | 46c | 137$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 24c | 135.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 18c | 134.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…52a1backed Yes | 58c | 134.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d5…18d8backed No | 79c | 133.69$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes | 56c | 128.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 9c | 123.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed Yes | 62c | 122.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed Yes | 27c | 115$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 41cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 57c | 111.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 61c | 104.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e3…12c6backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9243…6bd5backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…4a2dbacked No | 79c | 97.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 68c | 95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 36c | 93.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 39c | 81.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f0…552dbacked Yes | 14c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 57c | 77.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 75.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 54c | 72.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by March 31?this page
- Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 15?No won
- Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.