TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) win Best Actress – Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,106
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,487

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,106 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a6f…deaebacked No24c932$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.68825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed Yes76c864$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.363240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3af9…2cdbbacked No25c810$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.51323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-38.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb04e…d4aabacked No27c740.45$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005414.8%8 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick15cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes75c695.94$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.9228528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x094a…e4a9backed No27c626.56$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.043240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b71…f1d9backed No26c615$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.91758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+60.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e4e…6533backed No31c615$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.651030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes69c602$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.622138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9720…f4d1backed Yes74c519$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.943243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked No25c518$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.52737%10 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes75c516$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1295046%23 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes80c499.97$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.571050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No20c471$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.219440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No22c454.39$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7213130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e55…59d2backed No27c434$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.181838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No24c381$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.15215.4%8 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed Yes75c379$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.752445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa15b…200fbacked Yes76c376$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.241435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1584…71b6backed No46c338.88$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.531546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes74c337.84$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.845957.6%34 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed Yes76c308$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.924542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x293b…09a9backed Yes73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812055%11 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No25c290.22$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7723130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fbf…7328backed No24c267$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.081127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-44.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf29…3f46backed Yes77c250.84$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.842231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-49.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf3ef…0042backed No26c248$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f3…09e0backed Yes75c247$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.752540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes73c238$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.262055%11 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes76c229$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.962944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234a…cbffbacked No24c229$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9660%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x465c…6e53backed No24c214$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.361827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-51.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes73c206.43$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5623741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No24c199$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8629926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No23c194.08$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4148236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6368…d45ebacked Yes78c192.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.312556%14 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes75c184$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463161.3%19 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f83…7bf4backed Yes75c171.25$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.251060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes78c158.85$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9515739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes72c158$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9924634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3b9…66acbacked No27c151.85$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No20c150.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1813650%68 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334250%21 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No9c150$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes76c145.47$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.474544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x290d…9e42backed No24c142$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.082045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked No22c141.17$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.986729.9%20 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-44%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1183…25e8backed No29c139$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x416b…bad6backed Yes75c138.39$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.125523.6%13 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed Yes76c130.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.917839.7%31 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe126…b313backed Yes78c128.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes78c128.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.493473.5%25 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No26c126.45$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.791,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf3a…2a7fbacked No29c119$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ec…8692backed Yes74c108.11$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.111136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.25per pick62cpaid-47.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc123…115cbacked Yes76c105$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.22653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b1…0005backed No27c104$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.081540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0845…c4edbacked Yes73c102.78$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.752832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed No23c101$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.61616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa237…d59abacked Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+32.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55e7…e523backed No29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed No43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-45.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x83be…6f94backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+49.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4f90…1d49backed Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked No24c98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.522347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x808d…24a7backed Yes76c92.1$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-44.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2296…513fbacked Yes74c92$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+123.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked No23c91.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.771145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No24c90$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.634651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2566…7d60backed Yes74c90$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+28.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc853…9d37backed No28c88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.642548%12 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No23c88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2410244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No29c84.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.641,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x02ac…ac3bbacked Yes74c82$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59b9…4947backed No27c77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe977…9a60backed Yes74c74$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba91…4182backed No29c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9a…b04fbacked No29c69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.953016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf811…69babacked Yes73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.494100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+157.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed No24c62.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.822330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-45.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x713d…15d0backed Yes78c61.63$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.73771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No26c60.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.887033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No29c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.610139.6%40 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd1…9c20backed No28c53.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157627.6%21 W · 55 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-43%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Yes74c50.85$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.145324.5%13 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x029c…5137backed No25c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.251154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick67cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x323d…d7fbbacked Yes71c49$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc977…96f5backed Yes71c46$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes75c45.54$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.320668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d4…13c4backed Yes71c44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3041…c717backed No28c43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa46d…d66ebacked Yes76c41.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-62.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b1f…82fabacked Yes71c41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.892100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+197.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9e8…7bacbacked Yes71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No26c39.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3648414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd929…65cbbacked Yes71c38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x836d…3557backed No29c38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes73c37.85$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2213135.1%46 W · 85 L-14.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes78c36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.997136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.