TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Emma Stone (Bugonia) win Best Actress – Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,811
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,700

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,811 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe504…70efbacked Yes15c3,900$585 inLost-$5852718.5%5 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-58.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked Yes16c1,222$195 inLost-$195.496541.5%27 W · 38 L+8.8wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+68.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes15c424$64 inLost-$63.61618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-45.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x184f…a48fbacked Yes12c403$49 inLost-$48.76728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-63.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fce…5150backed Yes15c326$50 inLost-$50.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes7c287.48$21 inLost-$21.495831%18 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes10c245.2$25 inLost-$24.5217821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x416b…bad6backed Yes15c210.01$32 inLost-$31.85523.6%13 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c210$35 inLost-$35.141,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Yes6c200$12 inLost-$11.955324.5%13 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa66e…d3a1backed Yes15c181$28 inLost-$27.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…360dbacked Yes15c179$27 inLost-$27.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180f…44f7backed Yes16c161.18$25 inLost-$25130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ce…cf90backed Yes15c151$23 inLost-$23.120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fc9…fa88backed Yes55c142$79 inLost-$78.691250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f7…e73bbacked Yes14c119.99$16 inLost-$16.22030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3f3…951fbacked Yes15c114$17 inLost-$17.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c7…2371backed No69c110$75 inWon+$34.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No80c105$84 inWon+$2113740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb25f…a460backed Yes10c102.95$10 inLost-$10922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf853…dabcbacked Yes15c94$14 inLost-$14.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fa…ab2ebacked Yes15c93$14 inLost-$14.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42cf…9d7abacked Yes15c89$14 inLost-$13.6230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c83.59$13 inLost-$13.2848414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf82d…1119backed Yes15c81$12 inLost-$12.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.