Movies · resolved market
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7010e5a97ab27082ecf14872944826e7fae2b314c43c18fa7f5b333059f51e72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1223…d424backed No | 7c | 6,757$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.36 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 14c | 915.93$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.26 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…4027backed Yes | 75c | 905$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.8 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 31c | 868.25$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.37 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 23c | 800$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed No | 61c | 693$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.73 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 14c | 642$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 6c | 549.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 6c | 489.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed Yes | 39c | 455$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.55 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…e392backed Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…beddbacked Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed No | 30c | 399$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked Yes | 37c | 393$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.59 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked No | 63c | 393$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 25c | 326$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed No | 58c | 310$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 67c | 275$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed Yes | 39c | 238$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 49c | 205.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 16c | 190.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e8…e923backed Yes | 72c | 131$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53d…9710backed No | 36c | 125.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 74c | 122$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 15c | 115.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed No | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 17c | 100.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Yes | 69c | 63.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed No | 31c | 56.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f8…e79cbacked Yes | 75c | 52.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 65c | 52.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3a62…8650backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…83d7backed Yes | 69c | 42.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 75c | 41.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 64c | 33.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e9…b2e0backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 22.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe61d…e172backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)this page
- Will "His & Hers" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)No won
- Will "Unlocked: A Jail Experiment: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.