Movies · resolved market
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83adeb30c5f512b14a92b185244b10308b83efa4fec2b16f4cf34af3c81da738
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 55c | 446$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.7 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…69e5backed Yes | 45c | 446$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 58c | 436$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 12c | 361$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes | 42c | 344$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.48 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…a384backed Yes | 6c | 313.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 6c | 241$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 8c | 158$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 149.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95f8…e79cbacked Yes | 15c | 79.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe61d…e172backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…ce7fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)this page
- Will "His & Hers" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)No won
- Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)Yes won
- Will "Unlocked: A Jail Experiment: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.