NFL · resolved market
Will Larry Ellison buy the Seattle Seahawks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d54d2741c6bb47c104b460df20252bedb7c6d8b26c188e16fe9c391ee16b4c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,347$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 75c | 1,693$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 11c | 992.35$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.61 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked No | 70c | 885$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed Yes | 30c | 885$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 25c | 874$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 25c | 819$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 70c | 622$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes | 30c | 622$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 2c | 542.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…3bd6backed Yes | 16c | 237.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd72…98fbbacked Yes | 16c | 233.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31b…923bbacked Yes | 16c | 231.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2c…7fe6backed Yes | 16c | 230.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a6…20fcbacked Yes | 16c | 220.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x097b…1e30backed Yes | 16c | 218$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2f…0d79backed Yes | 16c | 213.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…e69ebacked Yes | 16c | 210.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…6bbcbacked Yes | 16c | 209.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…d7f6backed Yes | 16c | 207.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…d94dbacked Yes | 16c | 199.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb9…ff36backed Yes | 16c | 198.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Larry Ellison buy the Seattle Seahawks?this page
- Will Bill Gates buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
- Will Jeff Bezos buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
- Will John Stanton buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
- Will LeBron James buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
- Will Macklemore (Benjamin Hammond Haggerty) buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
- Will Marshawn Lynch buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
- Will Steve Ballmer buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
- Will Tim Cook buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.