NFL · resolved market
Will Tim Cook buy the Seattle Seahawks?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e6a06000947f69b82f4aff96ec66da0c50b45e4e89552f0b1ee02ecf09c4adb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a80…c54cbacked No | 70c | 1,066$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 2c | 634.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 603.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…d336backed Yes | 6c | 417.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Yes | 21c | 400$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 13c | 364.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…4127backed Yes | 6c | 210.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 7c | 150.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 130.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…fcffbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 64c | 42.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tim Cook buy the Seattle Seahawks?this page
- Will Bill Gates buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
- Will Jeff Bezos buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
- Will John Stanton buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
- Will Larry Ellison buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
- Will LeBron James buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
- Will Macklemore (Benjamin Hammond Haggerty) buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
- Will Marshawn Lynch buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
- Will Steve Ballmer buy the Seattle Seahawks?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.