TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

U.S. forces in Gaza in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$315,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$348,412

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,021 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9bfd…13ccbacked Yes11c28,885$3,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,065.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ba…9acfbacked Yes21c16,000$3,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,319.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No75c9,537$7,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,360.2318151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes9c8,536$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.895425.9%14 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes3c8,144$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.3119531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes10c4,746$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.59333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf363…83d0backed Yes25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes15c3,450$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.8340828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8936…79ebbacked Yes5c3,127$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf524…d5afbacked Yes3c3,076$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes5c2,709$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.469827.6%27 W · 71 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29c7…1a7dbacked Yes9c2,460$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.39520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+61.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes3c2,037$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7673%2 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbff…5830backed No75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001850%9 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x846a…e4f8backed Yes10c1,909$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1841050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c9…eda0backed Yes3c1,645$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.651717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-49.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes12c1,371$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3414129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ffe…b69dbacked Yes55c1,355$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.521526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes15c1,183$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.68519.8%5 W · 46 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d4b…056fbacked Yes10c1,170$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc472…ced9backed Yes8c1,134$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.391414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+39.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe36d…290ebacked Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11014520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No53c956.34$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.489535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3ac9…155abacked Yes13c946.67$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes24c918.8$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.778137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c882.55$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.251,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c0…2ab2backed Yes11c823.09$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No17c821.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.255330.2%16 W · 37 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+154.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No17c821.97$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.245127.5%14 W · 37 L+7.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+151%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes7c819.78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.321332.3%3 W · 130 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes2c800$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.618135.9%65 W · 116 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e40…f622backed Yes13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005825.9%15 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes3c744$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.942343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f3…d536backed Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cd…ea1bbacked Yes36c687.62$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked No32c674.48$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.657448.6%36 W · 38 L+9.7wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+156.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x246b…1196backed Yes18c653.79$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.741656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes9c611.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed Yes3c585$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.251741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes8c582.62$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.542120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe980…2398backed Yes9c580$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes7c575.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2513250%66 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd1c9…8181backed Yes3c560.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e80…963fbacked Yes18c549.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d13…c8c7backed Yes11c506.82$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4023420.9%49 W · 185 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4511728.2%33 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454537.8%17 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e38…8fbdbacked Yes13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb670…69c8backed Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick39cpaid-61.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8add…fc2abacked Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed Yes3c489$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.091050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27cd…b39dbacked Yes21c475.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-59.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2072…1201backed Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x858a…c4bebacked Yes10c450$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed Yes3c450$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.72025%5 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-52.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes9c439.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5413738%52 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes3c428$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.562147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aee…b919backed Yes10c425.13$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a10…0e3abacked Yes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ee3…4ca0backed Yes16c381.8$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.77933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+73.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd38a…4832backed Yes65c369.01$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.631030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-54.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa2…453ebacked Yes15c365.08$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.56837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+135.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e8f…8001backed Yes10c365$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352025%5 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95e6…1d2bbacked Yes10c349.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.52321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7991…81d3backed Yes10c335.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe013…c8f8backed Yes9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7652…1aa8backed Yes15c332.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed Yes4c321.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.88244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cd2…edeabacked Yes10c320$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.41662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba76…616bbacked Yes13c317.69$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.31225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No52c316$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.4716651.2%85 W · 81 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes12c300$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3728943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2714940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes13c297.53$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.684156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a1d…a040backed Yes17c289.67$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4543…eb7ebacked Yes18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes12c270$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6726138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7642…55ccbacked Yes19c269$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502661.5%16 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+41.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a7d…2d33backed Yes11c253.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes7c250$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.513629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe2ee…e354backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x853b…eff5backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac24…16b1backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick14cpaid+85.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e17…00d1backed Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick20cpaid+152.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes14c244$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1640433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d30…b797backed Yes13c230.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcbbb…9bcebacked Yes13c225.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc973…d78abacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes18c219.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404355.8%24 W · 19 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+75.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdae2…d51fbacked Yes14c214.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No58c211.03$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6258927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c209$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes7c205$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3533741.2%139 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x031b…babcbacked Yes16c201.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aab…3b61backed Yes12c200.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.051931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-40.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba8d…d16fbacked Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1636626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.