Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Iraq by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec9ed6760ff6f94af86360a27f0a58a8c3d81fcec4009104e74295ee31831de7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 14,637$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…d714backed Yes | 17c | 2,984$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 3c | 2,918$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…27f0backed Yes | 3c | 1,756$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…1d31backed Yes | 20c | 1,507$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,195$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,113$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213b…4ee7backed Yes | 11c | 1,096$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 1,091$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,084$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 3c | 1,082$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 3c | 1,043$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 943.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e7…a322backed Yes | 2c | 920.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 901.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 771.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 11c | 746.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 744.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 3c | 727.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 700$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 670.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed No | 77c | 615$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 608.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 577.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 13c | 566$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed Yes | 31c | 516$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b69…ee2ebacked Yes | 20c | 505.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae1…2973backed Yes | 20c | 500.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 23c | 420$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes | 17c | 410$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x800e…4595backed Yes | 5c | 393.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed No | 77c | 334$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 309.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 284.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 23c | 273.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 4c | 273$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +137.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 14c | 260.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 7c | 258.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xba89…468cbacked Yes | 10c | 256.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed Yes | 17c | 252$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc83…e1aabacked Yes | 9c | 242$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf412…fdecbacked Yes | 8c | 237.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 27c | 237.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.99 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 12c | 225.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 17c | 215.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad9…47e5backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 23c | 195$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 193.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 69c | 171$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…0df8backed Yes | 9c | 167.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 143.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 8c | 141.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes | 31c | 133$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0193…8779backed Yes | 16c | 131.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed Yes | 17c | 122.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 17c | 116.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b6…f8d1backed Yes | 18c | 114.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…5fc0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a53…602bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83f…4611backed Yes | 31c | 96.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 19c | 87.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…da13backed Yes | 19c | 71.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 60.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714e…beeebacked No | 69c | 53.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe251…c45bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 76c | 26.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 69c | 25.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.