Movies · resolved market
Will "His & Hers" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd34f0530e03c96c69104730f50a2b6b262bf18b89a0ac5efd0acf677b8e7220
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 33c | 999.98$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed Yes | 43c | 611$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.73 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed No | 79c | 582$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked No | 57c | 501$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.43 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +123%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 22c | 443.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 66c | 413$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…5eafbacked Yes | 34c | 413$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.42 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 21c | 370$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 24c | 365$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 76c | 365$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 5c | 362.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed No | 57c | 332$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.76 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked Yes | 43c | 332$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.76 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 21c | 312$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 79c | 282$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 6c | 258.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 70c | 255.58$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 11c | 244.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed Yes | 21c | 212$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 145$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 9c | 138.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 127.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 19c | 114.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.53 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed No | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…d25ebacked No | 66c | 76.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "His & Hers" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)this page
- Will "Run Away" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)Yes won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.