Movies · resolved market
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x686d3143bd0a7ed7027f4b5124304c7e5c807baaa00b8a6872bc558c8ea6ded8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 16c | 923$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.68 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 10c | 854$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 2c | 799.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 9c | 785.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed Yes | 14c | 701$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 506$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 2c | 455.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked Yes | 17c | 414$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed Yes | 16c | 395$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 332.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 16c | 288$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 281$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…ba67backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 16c | 242$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 115.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 77.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Yes | 33c | 77.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 65c | 33.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d08…f466backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…588cbacked Yes | 78c | 12.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)this page
- Will "His & Hers" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)No won
- Will "Run Away" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.