World Politics · resolved market
Will Daniel Băluță get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7167786115b03e392b009949f123e37afaaf52eb15a69ddad389205ca3d19b40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 18c | 1,385$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.86 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 62c | 1,110$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.82 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked No | 56c | 1,100$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 700.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…5daebacked Yes | 44c | 570.45$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e693backed Yes | 44c | 565$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 22cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 62c | 376$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.97 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24f0backed No | 62c | 356$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed No | 62c | 335$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 319.58$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 38c | 299$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 4c | 279.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 38c | 272$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked No | 63c | 265$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 37c | 234$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed No | 63c | 233$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 29c | 228$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.88 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 41c | 227$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b40…9ebfbacked Yes | 45c | 223.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 38c | 213$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c24…e1afbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…aa3cbacked Yes | 40c | 199$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 63c | 189$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 71c | 187$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.77 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 37cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…a8aabacked No | 60c | 184$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked Yes | 37c | 163$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 38c | 158$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.96 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 56c | 144.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 42c | 142.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 37c | 137$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked No | 59c | 137$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 55c | 134.02$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…5e22backed Yes | 32c | 125.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 34cpaid | +189.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed No | 56c | 122.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…282abacked No | 60c | 121$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +98%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 38c | 118$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed Yes | 37c | 109$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd091…e046backed Yes | 28c | 106$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 62c | 104$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 37c | 102$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c0…35f8backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 16c | 95.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked No | 72c | 89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 72c | 82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 41c | 81.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed Yes | 40c | 74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 59c | 66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a64bbacked Yes | 40c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed No | 71c | 58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed Yes | 38c | 57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed Yes | 37c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 63c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked Yes | 40c | 41.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 34.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed No | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked No | 72c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 60c | 21.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb258…f199backed No | 59c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniel Băluță get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?this page
- Will Daniel Băluță get at least 40% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Daniel Băluță get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Daniel Băluță get between 25% and 30% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Daniel Băluță get between 30% and 35% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Daniel Băluță get less than 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.