World Politics · resolved market
Will Daniel Băluță get between 25% and 30% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7f71c4b6c3cc713b5a0881677b2520949522aa839597d041511fa57fb12081a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 35c | 3,536$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.9 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 67c | 1,831$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.51 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 66c | 1,111$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.74 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 3c | 675.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 71c | 621$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.91 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes | 31c | 398$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 29c | 391$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 69c | 384$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.93 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 33c | 299$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed Yes | 28c | 267$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b40…9ebfbacked Yes | 38c | 265.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 58c | 260.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 72c | 252$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 66c | 201$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed Yes | 29c | 178$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 69c | 172$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 158.82$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 66c | 158$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed No | 64c | 147$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes | 28c | 137$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 72c | 137$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed No | 71c | 123$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 34c | 118.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 450 | 21.1%95 W · 355 L | -21.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…4201backed Yes | 31c | 115.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c0…35f8backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked No | 72c | 91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…2589backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 19c | 83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 27c | 81.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed No | 71c | 78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…9dd3backed Yes | 34c | 67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…de26backed No | 68c | 64.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 31c | 58.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…c3ddbacked Yes | 35c | 46.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked Yes | 36c | 42.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…6c92backed No | 67c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed No | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 35.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 995 | 17.2%171 W · 824 L | -149.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…861bbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…0a09backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +149.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniel Băluță get between 25% and 30% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?this page
- Will Daniel Băluță get at least 40% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Daniel Băluță get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Daniel Băluță get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Daniel Băluță get between 30% and 35% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Daniel Băluță get less than 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.