World Politics · resolved market
Will Daniel Băluță get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe771bdda5dcae83ad4337b9cc5b2298436500e5be79addd6bed952488ffe845
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 9c | 6,652$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.25 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c24…e1afbacked Yes | 5c | 2,388$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.92 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 2c | 1,141$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51c8…fb0fbacked Yes | 13c | 758.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +601.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 12c | 585.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 6c | 407.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 9c | 368.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 4c | 305.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes | 17c | 292$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…af79backed Yes | 15c | 161.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes | 14c | 118$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…9767backed Yes | 14c | 87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniel Băluță get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?this page
- Will Daniel Băluță get at least 40% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Daniel Băluță get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Daniel Băluță get between 25% and 30% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Daniel Băluță get between 30% and 35% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Daniel Băluță get less than 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.