Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cd6890b88a4d21884f36d5427d5aa7318392b74f4d068a70065e8ce6e523442
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d43…ac2bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,530$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 19c | 1,441$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x039f…1798backed Yes | 4c | 1,215$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,197$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 1c | 1,170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed Yes | 7c | 894.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 747.75$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked Yes | 2c | 720$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb414…da07backed Yes | 19c | 711.43$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 78c | 600$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf7…3787backed Yes | 3c | 584.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 569.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972e…c83abacked Yes | 5c | 527$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 506.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 3c | 499$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7057…a052backed Yes | 3c | 491.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 2c | 486$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked Yes | 3c | 473.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 20c | 455$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 3c | 443$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x244b…d87fbacked Yes | 3c | 436$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 9c | 428$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc94…efd5backed Yes | 3c | 426$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 3c | 409$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 388.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 4c | 313$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 76c | 305.06$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d9…b173backed Yes | 21c | 283.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +273%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 20c | 278.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 238.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c0…6867backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b56…1990backed Yes | 5c | 205.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 12c | 199.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 8c | 181.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 141$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd9…62cfbacked Yes | 14c | 140.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 25c | 130.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…4c8cbacked Yes | 21c | 128.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 79c | 127.62$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…17d0backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…d3ecbacked Yes | 19c | 116.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e61…60a0backed Yes | 26c | 114.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa6…7c3cbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ed3cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 23c | 92.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x750f…8c52backed Yes | 21c | 81.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 18c | 66.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 23c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 22c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea04…b8c2backed Yes | 37c | 53.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a49…3ceebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d77…058dbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 27c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2025?this page
- Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2025?No won
- Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2025?No won
- Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2025?No won
- Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2025?No won
- Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?Yes won
- Will SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.