Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4e2af103f1f6e153cb07f9977b3cbdb5f04bb856a69036bbe8bd3921d2bfb00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 22c | 2,900$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed Yes | 4c | 1,814$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 1,676$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 80c | 1,194$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 77c | 1,170$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 18c | 1,039$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 10c | 1,030$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 11c | 668$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 4c | 523$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 508$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 3c | 471.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 22c | 452.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc3…c64cbacked Yes | 23c | 395.65$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 79c | 350$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c0…6867backed Yes | 11c | 331.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…74fdbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 8c | 284.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 260.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 8c | 240.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 16c | 220$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd9…62cfbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbf…7df7backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15d…7545backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 145$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 23c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 24c | 116.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed No | 76c | 115$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e61…60a0backed Yes | 26c | 114.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa6…7c3cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 77c | 93.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea04…b8c2backed Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2025?this page
- Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2025?No won
- Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2025?No won
- Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2025?No won
- Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?Yes won
- Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2025?No won
- Will SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.