Us Politics · resolved market
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 9 - 15 be greater than 16,000,000?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5581bf0e63649acd94a804feda53dc5e9ac8c2743c3f324accb91dc05fd45671
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 69c | 1,716$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.03 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked No | 58c | 553$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 8c | 547.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 69c | 525$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 21c | 484.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 60c | 448$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 42c | 431$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 28c | 407.35$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed No | 8c | 402.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 31c | 386$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…4a94backed Yes | 44c | 379$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 56c | 337$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…7861backed No | 56c | 327$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 68c | 323.28$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…0dc8backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes | 40c | 290$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 60c | 271$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 42c | 264$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 26c | 251.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 40c | 237$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 44c | 207$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 44c | 186$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 31c | 139$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 56c | 108$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…6c6cbacked Yes | 76c | 105.76$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…1e9abacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 43c | 80.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 45c | 79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 40c | 76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2d…f01abacked Yes | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42da…f3d3backed No | 24c | 43.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 35c | 40.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa506…7d8abacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 72c | 26.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…fe90backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 60c | 17.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 9 - 15 be greater than 16,000,000?this page
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 9 - 15 be between 14,500,000 and 15,000,000?No won
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 9 - 15 be between 15,000,000 and 15,500,000?No won
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 9 - 15 be between 15,500,000 and 16,000,000?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.