Us Politics · resolved market
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 9 - 15 be between 15,500,000 and 16,000,000?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37ebbd3c66ba95519e844a95cd1311fe910f0c7f7ca01c3e92fdbc0b2cbe3b02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42fd…96c0backed Yes | 4c | 1,700$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 18c | 934$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 17c | 821$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes | 38c | 690$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked No | 62c | 690$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 17c | 639$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 41c | 562.87$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.66 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 6c | 531.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…37edbacked Yes | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed Yes | 49c | 290$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed No | 51c | 290$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 35cpaid | +275.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed No | 69c | 140$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes | 17c | 123$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…9991backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 7cpaid | +515.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 61c | 82.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…6c6cbacked Yes | 20c | 80.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed Yes | 29c | 64.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 55c | 39.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 45c | 31.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 62c | 26.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 9 - 15 be between 15,500,000 and 16,000,000?this page
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 9 - 15 be between 14,500,000 and 15,000,000?No won
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 9 - 15 be between 15,000,000 and 15,500,000?No won
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 9 - 15 be greater than 16,000,000?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.