Movies · resolved market
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1730ddaa88ffb2fb360af9f5b58c9e427f61c30712578b1701408911e3f655d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 71c | 1,012$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.52 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 2c | 977.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 76c | 938$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 29c | 866$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 69c | 789$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked No | 31c | 782$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 24c | 780$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed No | 25c | 699.94$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +93%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 27c | 692.8$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.43 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 75c | 679$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed No | 28c | 675$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 72c | 578$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.16 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Yes | 75c | 533.93$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.02 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 33c | 528$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.76 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 74c | 524.99$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.48 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 22c | 495.3$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.34 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 24c | 491.51$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.77 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 70c | 450$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.18 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 26c | 436$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.37 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 79c | 330.92$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.4 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 67c | 325$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed No | 26c | 325$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 74c | 325$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 72c | 316$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.55 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 77c | 300.16$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.56 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 25c | 292.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.57 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 22c | 241.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed Yes | 75c | 231$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed Yes | 78c | 230$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b0c1backed No | 22c | 220.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed No | 25c | 217.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.82 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 24c | 210$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed Yes | 67c | 203$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 78c | 201.42$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.3 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 75c | 169$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.47 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 24c | 168.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.04 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 24c | 167$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed No | 29c | 158$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes | 72c | 154$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 23c | 146.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 21c | 141.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.95 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb6…46a6backed Yes | 76c | 128.26$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…dda9backed Yes | 76c | 126.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed No | 32c | 124$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 76c | 124$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 24c | 120$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b38…7edebacked Yes | 80c | 104.22$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked No | 24c | 98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 71c | 93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 32c | 89.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 23c | 88.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked No | 29c | 81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 72c | 71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…af08backed Yes | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 71c | 66.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60d…2204backed Yes | 77c | 64.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 73c | 58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…26e0backed No | 28c | 57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…367cbacked No | 23c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28cd…d99abacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…da76backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…8234backed Yes | 76c | 43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…3b00backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…830abacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…333fbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc79…f792backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…bf13backed Yes | 76c | 25.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…5444backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?this page
- Will Alexander Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will Paul Mescal win Best Supporting Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.