AI · resolved market
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a4d957fc547eea1614932870352e4606e7a2a9ca267ab129c333f3296198e3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 28c | 4,085$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.87 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 12c | 2,235$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.53 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…2cc1backed Yes | 31c | 1,730$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea0…b30abacked Yes | 29c | 680.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed Yes | 27c | 659$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…1da9backed Yes | 27c | 519.94$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 21c | 475.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 79c | 403.22$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…ca06backed Yes | 37c | 306.55$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.91 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked No | 73c | 280$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 73c | 246.75$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 215.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 36c | 209.62$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.18 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…36b2backed No | 73c | 192$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…188dbacked No | 60c | 190$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…c797backed Yes | 50c | 190$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b3…e2a2backed No | 50c | 190$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 73c | 187$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 10c | 167.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…30ccbacked Yes | 16c | 155$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +116%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1101…c7f6backed Yes | 14c | 104.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…4593backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…cf2cbacked Yes | 31c | 97.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +78%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3295…8c24backed Yes | 24c | 92.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 79c | 90.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb235…c047backed Yes | 30c | 67.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c70…98f2backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 75c | 34.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1676…ab19backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 79c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 14.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?this page
- Will Paprika Recipe Manager 3 be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?No won
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.