AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa59a9276aca0f1136c3c4b8a35d83cbf2c0428af1ec8be4b13f118e8a4222d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 34c | 4,619$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.01 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 19c | 4,152$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.69 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 15c | 1,246$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.9 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked No | 17c | 954$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed No | 18c | 669$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 13c | 584.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed No | 18c | 422$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 70c | 330$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 34c | 306.07$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.21 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 80c | 210$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 10c | 195.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 180.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 176.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 160.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 18c | 156.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 76c | 151.27$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…81e2backed No | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a89…840abacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked No | 18c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…66e9backed No | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…ca06backed No | 51c | 86.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb798…7030backed Yes | 72c | 85.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 14c | 72.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc762…5c46backed Yes | 76c | 69.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 18c | 66.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…cf2cbacked No | 28c | 62.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +78%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…51eebacked Yes | 77c | 60.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 49.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…294cbacked Yes | 78c | 45.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 77c | 43.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…4593backed Yes | 77c | 36.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc01a…54ddbacked Yes | 79c | 29.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cb…1d0cbacked Yes | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 78c | 25.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 71c | 21.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1676…ab19backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd33…4714backed Yes | 79c | 16.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 71c | 14.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…67f7backed Yes | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?No won
- Will Paprika Recipe Manager 3 be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.