Middle East · resolved market
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4cb8f53e552a39b433b923a245cb8f47962149df166c09958d0d75efb3a7abb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 14c | 1,574$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.1 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,358$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.92 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 13c | 1,120$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.05 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 16c | 914.96$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.59 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes | 13c | 752.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…62e9backed Yes | 14c | 736.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 9c | 596.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 13c | 556$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 14c | 521$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 14c | 518$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 420.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 5c | 410$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 7c | 391.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 15c | 387.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 311.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc1…76c3backed Yes | 6c | 264.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 7c | 244.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 13c | 237.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 10c | 228.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 15c | 209.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 198.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…8bdebacked Yes | 16c | 188$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…6c92backed Yes | 12c | 177$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 15c | 167.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 12c | 167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe364…4b24backed Yes | 12c | 166.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.37per pick | 45cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…53b2backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…bac3backed Yes | 14c | 141.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed Yes | 12c | 126.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…1dc8backed Yes | 15c | 109.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f5…200cbacked Yes | 20c | 99.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes | 14c | 93.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 90.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…1975backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5595…f5e9backed Yes | 13c | 78.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…af37backed Yes | 14c | 72.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x190d…5388backed Yes | 20c | 67.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…3f31backed No | 80c | 61.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…0b6dbacked Yes | 27c | 56.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…1b4cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 80c | 27.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…621ebacked No | 74c | 20.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.